The Houston Rockets (2-12) visit the Dallas Mavericks (8-5) on Wednesday night. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Rockets-Mavericks prediction and pick.
Houston has lost three straight games and sits in last place in the Western Conference. The Rockets are 6-7-1 against the spread while 57% of their games have gone over. Dallas is on the opposite trajectory, having won two straight games and residing in fifth place in the West. The Mavericks are 3-9-1 against the spread while 62% of their games gave gone over.
This will be the first meeting between the division rivals after Dallas took all four last season. The Mavericks won by 10, 24, 13, and 19-point margins. Two of the four games went over tonight's 221-point total.
Here are the Rockets-Mavericks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Rockets-Mavericks Odds
Houston Rockets: +9 (-112)
Dallas Mavericks: -9 (-108)
Over: 221 (-108)
Under: 221 (-112)
Why The Rockets Could Cover The Spread
The Rockets hold the worst record in the NBA and are the only team without three wins this season. Houston has been below-average offensively (24th in scoring/26th in offensive efficiency) but their real woes have come on the defensive end (28th in points allowed/29th in defensive efficiency). Houston is one of the three worst defensive teams in the league alongside fellow tankers Detroit and San Antonio. The one area they are decent is on the glass (eighth in rebound rate) – a solid advantage to have against a Dallas team that has struggled to rebound.
Houston is led by a pair of talented young guards in Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. Green leads the team in scoring with 22.0 PPG on 43.3% from the field and 37.5% from beyond the arc. He is coming off a strong all-around performance against the Clippers. In the loss, Green scored 25 points (10-19 shooting), pulled down six rebounds, and dished out seven assists. It was the sixth consecutive 20-point game for Green. He struggled as a rookie against the Mavericks – scoring just 10.3 points per game on 34.8% shooting. Expect a better showing this year for the second-year pro.
Kevin Porter Jr. has found his home as second-fiddle in Houston over the last few years and this season is no different. KPJ is averaging a career-best 19.2 PPG on 40.9% shooting. Although he often struggles with efficiency, Porter Jr. is a dynamic playmaker when he takes care of the ball. He leads Houston with 5.6 APG despite an ugly 3.9 turnovers per game. He was solid against Dallas last season as he averaged 13 points and 5.3 assists on 49% shooting.
The X-factor for Houston has to be their big man, Alperen Sengun. The second-year pro has taken a huge leap this season as a full-time starter. He is third on the team in scoring (16.1 PPG) and leads the team in rebounding (8.7 RPG). Sengun shoots at an efficient 57.4% clip and is not afraid to go to the free-throw line where he's knocking them down at a 78% rate.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Dallas has continued to roll after squeezing out a narrow victory over the Clippers last night. The Mavericks feature an elite defense (third in points allowed/ eighth in defensive efficiency) that has given up more than 115 points only once all season. Offensively, they are middle of the road (22nd in scoring/ ninth in offensive efficiency). They have been vulnerable on the glass, however, as they are 21st in rebound rate and hold the 23rd-ranked rebound differential.
Luka Doncic is the catalyst for Dallas as he leads the team in nearly every statistical category. He's guaranteed 30 points on any given night and is a constant threat to piece together a triple-double. For the season, Luka averages 34.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG, and 7.8 APG. He's coming off a strong performance against the Clippers where he scored 35 points and pulled down 11 rebounds.
While Luka is the constant for Dallas, he can't do it all himself. The Mavericks have a number of crafty vets, but tonight look for big man Christian Wood to play a key role. Wood was acquired from Houston prior to the season and the Rockets were who he broke out in the league. He's had a strong start to his Mavericks career – averaging 15.8 points and 7.5 rebounds in limited minutes. Look for head coach Jason Kidd to give Wood some extended run against his former team.
Final Rockets-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
The Mavericks smoked the Rockets last year – winning each game by more than 10 points. Despite Houston's record, they're improved enough that I don't feel great picking Dallas to blow them out. The over is much more enticing given Houston's porous defense.
Final Rockets-Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Over 221 (-108)
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