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The Minnesota Timberwolves enter the 2025-26 season with unfinished business. After falling to the Oklahoma City Thunder in last year’s Western Conference Final, Minnesota has been knocking on the door of a Finals berth but just hasn’t been able to break through. With Anthony Edwards ascending as a true superstar and Rudy Gobert plus Julius Randle adding toughness and interior presence, the Wolves have the ingredients of a title contender.
Their 49-33 finish in 2024-25 showcased their resilience in a crowded Western Conference. The Wolves stormed past the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round and took down the Golden State Warriors in the semifinals before being stopped short by the Thunder’s rising dynasty. That bitter ending only fuels Minnesota’s fire for the NBA Cup, a midseason tournament that offers not just bragging rights but a chance to test themselves in playoff-like conditions.
the quest for the @NBA Cup 🏆 pic.twitter.com/4Xk4SrLuPl
— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) August 13, 2025
In West Group A, the Timberwolves face the Utah Jazz, Sacramento Kings, Phoenix Suns, and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The path isn’t easy, but it could shape their championship mindset for the rest of the season. Let’s break down Minnesota’s NBA Cup group stage predictions game by game.
Timberwolves vs. Utah Jazz
Minnesota opens its NBA Cup campaign at home against the Utah Jazz. On paper, this is the perfect opportunity for the Wolves to set the tone. The Jazz are firmly in rebuild mode, having traded away key veterans like Collin Sexton and John Collins in the offseason while leaning into younger players such as Taylor Hendricks and Keyonte George. While they’ve added experienced role players like Kyle Anderson and Kevin Love, Utah is far from the powerhouse it once was.
The Wolves’ strength lies in their chemistry and defensive discipline. Gobert will take this matchup personally against his former team, and his interior presence should make life miserable for the Jazz’s developing frontcourt. Meanwhile, Edwards is primed to shine on opening night. Expect him to attack relentlessly, using his athleticism to overwhelm Utah’s perimeter defense.
With Randle providing additional scoring punch and orchestrating the offense, Minnesota should comfortably handle Utah at home. The Wolves win this one decisively, giving them momentum to start their group stage run.
Prediction: Timberwolves win at home (1-0)
Timberwolves vs. Sacramento Kings
The second group game keeps Minnesota at home, this time against the Sacramento Kings. Sacramento remains one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the league, powered by Domantas Sabonis’ inside-out playmaking. They play with tempo, spacing, and aggression, all elements that have made them a playoff staple in recent years.
But the Wolves match up better against Sacramento than most teams. Gobert’s defensive instincts allow him to neutralize Sabonis in the paint, while Edwards can take on the challenge of guarding Fox in crunch time. More importantly, Minnesota’s size advantage is significant.
The Wolves also thrive on physicality, something Sacramento sometimes struggles to handle. Minnesota’s crowd will play a big role in energizing the team, and if Edwards delivers his typical takeover performance late in games, the Wolves should edge out the Kings in a hard-fought battle.
Prediction: Timberwolves protect home court again (2-0)
Timberwolves vs. Phoenix Suns
The third group game presents Minnesota with its toughest challenge yet, an away matchup against the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix retooled heavily in the offseason, adding Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green via trades, plus Collin Gillespie and Isaiah Livers for depth. With Devin Booker still the centerpiece, the Suns boast firepower that can swing any game.
The Wolves know this won’t be easy. Road games in Phoenix are always tricky, especially with the Suns’ offensive explosiveness. But this is the type of test Minnesota relishes. Edwards thrives on silencing hostile crowds, and his duel with Booker will be must-watch theater. Meanwhile, Randle’s physicality inside gives Minnesota an edge against Phoenix’s thinner frontcourt rotation.
This game could go down to the wire, with both teams trading blows. The difference may come on the defensive end, where Minnesota has a clear advantage. Gobert’s rim protection and Edwards’ lockdown ability on the perimeter allow the Wolves to get stops late in the fourth quarter. Even if Booker goes off, Minnesota has the depth and discipline to answer.
It won’t be easy, but the Wolves prove their mettle on the road with a narrow, confidence-boosting win.
Prediction: Timberwolves win a close one in Phoenix (3-0)
Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The final group stage game is the marquee showdown: Timberwolves vs. Thunder, in Oklahoma City. This budding rivalry has become one of the most exciting in the Western Conference. After two straight playoff eliminations, Minnesota knows that if it wants to reach the Finals, it must go through Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren.
Unfortunately for the Wolves, this matchup once again favors OKC, especially on the Thunder's home court. Gilgeous-Alexander’s ability to control pace and dominate in clutch situations has been a nightmare for Minnesota in past meetings. Holmgren also presents a unique challenge for Gobert, as his shooting and mobility drags bigs out of the paint and creates mismatches.
The Wolves will compete, no doubt. Edwards will likely put on a show in a game with playoff intensity, and Randle’s presence adds toughness. But OKC’s chemistry, depth, and confidence are simply too strong to overlook. With the Thunder playing in front of their electric home crowd, the Wolves fall just short.
Prediction: Timberwolves lose on the road in OKC (3-1 overall in Group A)
A strong showing with more to prove
Finishing 3-1 in West Group A would be a strong showing for the Timberwolves. Winning their first three games, including a tough road matchup in Phoenix, demonstrates their ability to handle pressure and rise to the occasion. However, the loss to OKC once again highlights the lingering hurdle in Minnesota’s championship quest.
Still, the NBA Cup serves its purpose: testing the Wolves in playoff-like conditions and sharpening their edges for the long haul. If Edwards continues his superstar ascent and the rest of the roster stays healthy, this Timberwolves team has every reason to believe that their Finals breakthrough is finally within reach.
