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The NBA Draft will be held on June 25 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The first two picks are essentially set in stone and already locked in, with Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper projected to go to the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs, respectively.
As a result, the draft will really begin with the third pick. After a disastrous season combined with some incredible lottery luck, the Philadelphia 76ers hold the third overall pick in this year’s draft. The fourth through sixth picks are held by the Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz, and Washington Wizards, in that order.
Ace Bailey had been widely considered the consensus third-best player in this draft class dating back to his time dominating the high-school circuit, but his questionable approach to the pre-draft process paired with the emergence of VJ Edgecombe and Tre Johnson has thrown everything into question. Now, it’s even possible that Bailey could slide all the way to the Wizards with the sixth pick, or even further.
However, there is reason to believe that, when the dust settles, Bailey could actually be the best player to come out of this year’s class. Yes, better than both Flagg and Harper.
Who is Ace Bailey?
Ace Bailey starred at Rutgers and is moving on to the NBA. Bailey is a long, lengthy forward with plus-athleticism. However, he has quite a few noticeable flaws, and he has also taken an approach to the draft process that is unconventional to say the least.
It is clear that Bailey is an unfinished product, but some of his struggles can be attributed to both the team that he played for and the system that the coach ran. Bailey wasn’t much of a creator in college, although he did all right at creating for himself, he struggled to create for others consistently. Perhaps more worrying, his handle and ability to get to the rim are less than ideal for somebody who teams will be projecting to develop into a number one scoring option and a go-to player in the clutch when a team needs a bucket.
However, there are also plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Bailey’s potential. He has a beautiful-looking jumpshot, and while he struggled a bit from the free-throw line, this can be chalked up to one or two outlier poor performances as well as a low overall sample size.
He wasn’t a particularly high-volume free-throw shooter in college, which magnified each of his missed shots from the charity stripe. While one could argue his lack of volume is more concerning than his percentages, there are reasons to believe he will improve this number as he fills out his frame and learns to be more aggressive in driving to the paint.
Bailey has the rare ability of being open even when he's not
One of Bailey's most appealing attributes is that he’s a player who is always open, even when he’s covered. This is a trait that not many players claim they have, and it’s something that will make the former Rutgers forward invaluable to whatever team drafts him.
There’s a reason that players who can score at will against tight defense are considered indispensable for their team. That reason is because they can consistently deliver when their team calls on them in the final minutes of the game. There’s nothing quite like the ability to get a bucket on demand, and due to his high release point on his jump shot, Bailey can be one of those players.
The simple reality is that Bailey has an unteachable natural gift. His ability to shoot over the top of defenders gives him a unique edge that most other players don’t possess. Bailey combines this natural ability with a silky smooth jumpshot that he can convert at a high rate. Bailey also practices difficult shots, and his length and athleticism allow him to routinely take and make these difficult shots.
There’s certainly something to be said for the ability to make the difficult appear routine, and Bailey can certainly do that. Bailey might drive teams crazy taking difficult shots, but he’s also the exact type of player you want to have the ball in his hands when you’re down by a point with 10 seconds left in the game.
Tough shot makers are essential in the postseason
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There’s nothing quite like the NBA playoffs, and players in this league, superstars and legends are born in the postseason. Fans saw this happen with Tyrese Haliburton, who authored a legendary run of clutch moments prior to his devastating Achilles injury in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. He also saw this with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who put the young Thunder team on his back when it mattered most.
LeBron James has always been considered one of the greatest players in history from the moment he stepped onto the floor as a rookie, but his legacy was never solidified until he got it done when it mattered most. James' 45-point, 15-rebound effort in Game 6 of the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics marked one of the turning points for his legacy, and he hasn’t looked back since. Kyrie Irving‘s Game 7 last-minute dagger against the Golden State Warriors to win the Cleveland Cavaliers their first championship is still talked about to this day.
Bailey has the ability to create those kinds of lasting memories for his team, and in doing so he can help them get over the hump and win games down the stretch under the brightest lights. He isn’t afraid of the moment and due to his high release point, there’s very few players who can effectively guard him. Bailey might shoot under 50% on contested midrange jump shots, but this is still valuable because he can get to this spot and pull up anytime that he desires.
The former Rutgers star freshman can be a walking bucket in the NBA, and those players are incredibly rare. If he can excel in that area of the game, there is a credible path to where Bailey can become an All-Star and borderline NBA player, even if he ends up just being average in other areas of the game. However, if he develops well, and becomes a plus player in passing and scoring at the rim, he could become a true superstar, a top-10 or maybe even top-five player in the league.
Why Ace Bailey can be the best player in his draft class
When evaluating Bailey, two points often come up regarding his NBA potential: the Rutgers product's absolute ceiling is a diet version of Kevin Durant, and it is unlikely he reaches this absolute maximum ceiling. One popular comp for Bailey is Jabari Smith Jr., but the former Rutgers star has much more fluidity and natural athleticism than Smith Jr. could ever dream of.
A realistic average outcome would put Bailey as a discount version of Michael Porter Jr. without the health concerns, which would be a decent outcome.
However, Bailey can be much more than that, starting with the fact that he has a clean bill of health.
Cooper Flagg has a much higher floor than Bailey, but is likely limited to being a 1B or 2A offensively, rather than the clear-cut best offensive player on a team. Bailey has that tantalizing potential to be a go-to scorer. Additionally, Bailey has a much greater chance of securing a coveted “closer” role than Flagg does due to his smooth shot and ability to pull up over the top of a defender at any time.
Bailey also has the physical tools to be a plus or plus-plus defender, and he’ll only improve on that end of the floor as he gains maturity to process plays quicker and consistently remain engaged on that end of the court. Bailey should also improve his finishing at the rim as he grows into his frame and becomes more comfortable playing aggressively and throwing his weight around.
Finally, the young star forward has plenty of untapped playmaking upside, although he didn’t really get a chance to show off these abilities at Rutgers. If he could develop as a playmaker, that would be a real bonus and could result in Bailey becoming a top-tier player in the league. That scenario would almost certainly result in Bailey emerging as the best player in his class, although he could still reach those heights if Flagg and Harper falter slightly and his own defensive or playmaking skills continue to develop.
