Three weeks now remain in the college football regular season after the Week 11 slate, which gave some tough tests to contenders around the country. The reveal of the first College Football Playoff rankings before the weekend added an extra layer of intrigue to the mix.
Indiana passed a big test on the road in Happy Valley, edging out Penn State 27-24 thanks to some late heroics from Fernando Mendoza and Omar Cooper Jr. Oregon escaped Iowa with a hard-fought victory in the pouring rain to remain at one loss, and Texas A&M ran all over Missouri in the second half of a dominant road win over a ranked team.
In the Big 12, Texas Tech firmly established itself as the team to beat in the conference with a dominant 29-7 win over BYU in Lubbock. The Cougars aren't out of things by any means with just one loss, but it will take a lot of work for them to earn another shot at the Red Raiders in the conference title game.
With those results, the races in the SEC, the Big Ten and the Big 12 all got a little bit more clarity. The same cannot be said for the ACC, which saw Louisville suffer its second conference loss and Virginia suffer its first (but kind of second?) with an upset defeat at home against Wake Forest. Now, your guess is as good as ours as to who gets the AQ out of there.
Let's sort through what the latest CFP rankings might look like in our Week 12 College Football Playoff predictions.
1. Ohio State (9-0)
The selection committee confirmed that Ohio State is the top team in the country in its first rankings, and even a sleepy win over Purdue on Saturday shouldn't change that at all. Even after taking an early lead and getting a few stops in the first quarter, the Boilermakers never had enough firepower to threaten Ohio State.
Julian Sayin is quietly building a Heisman Trophy case and Jeremiah Smith had another insane game as Ohio State moved to 9-0 on the season. A trip to the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis seems like a sure thing, but a date with Michigan after Thanksgiving still looms for the Buckeyes.
2. Texas A&M (9-0)
Texas A&M still has some doubters across the country, but the Aggies continue to pass every test with flying colors. On Saturday, Mike Elko and company got the run game going in a 38-17 win over a Missouri team that doesn't have its quarterback, but still possesses a quality defense.
The Aggies continue to stack wins, and an SEC title should at least earn them the No. 2 spot assuming one of Ohio State or Indiana will have to lose at some point. Texas A&M gets a home date with South Carolina before playing Samford, all leading into a Black Friday date with Texas to close the regular season.
3. Indiana (10-0)
Indiana didn't have its usual dominant stuff on Saturday, but sometimes it's just about surviving and advancing. Fernando Mendoza pulled Indiana back from the brink, and the Hoosiers escaped Happy Valley with a 27-24 win thanks to an incredible toe-tap from Omar Cooper Jr.
Indiana has just two games left in the regular season, against struggling teams in Wisconsin and Purdue, with a bye week in between. Win both of those games, and Curt Cignetti and company will be headed to Indianapolis for a shot at a Big Ten Championship.
4. Alabama (8-1)
It wasn't always pretty, but Saturday night was business as usual for Alabama against an LSU team that is still reeling following the firing of Brian Kelly. Ty Simpson and the passing game were a bit up and down all night, but the defense forced LSU to bench Garrett Nussmeier and shut the Tigers down in a 20-9 win.
Kalen DeBoer and company get another tough test at home in Week 12 when Oklahoma comes to town. Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives at this point, but we're still betting on Alabama to run the table the rest of the regular season and get to Atlanta for the conference title game. Even if it loses to Texas A&M in that game, a top four seed is still in play considering a head-to-head win over Georgia and a number of other impressive wins on the resume.
5. Georgia (8-1)
Georgia had no trouble with a tricky Mississippi State team on the road after a sluggish first quarter to improve to 8-1 on the season. The second half blowout was a welcome sight for Bulldogs fans, who have been subject to a number of nail biters over the course of SEC play.
Things aren't getting any easier for Kirby Smart and company, as they host No. 11 Texas in Week 12. If Georgia can get through that game unscathed, a Thanksgiving weekend date with Georgia Tech awaits.
6. Texas Tech (9-1)
Texas Tech sent a message to the rest of the Big 12 on Saturday, dominating a previously-undefeated BYU team in a 29-7 rout to establish its place at the top of the Big 12. The Red Raiders clearly have the best defense in the conference, and that is a unit nobody will want to see in the CFP.
Simply put, if Texas Tech plays to its potential, nobody is stopping Joey McGuire and company before the end of December. They are our pick out of the Big 12 for now, and a conference title could be enough to vault them up to the No. 6 seed. Whether they are for real remains to be seen, but it's looking more and more likely that they will get a chance to prove it.
7. Ole Miss (9-1)
In a shocking turn of events, Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss had no trouble with… The Citadel on Saturday. Can we stop playing buy games in November, please?
In all seriousness, the final two games of the regular season should be business as usual for Kiffin and company. Ole Miss hosts a Florida team coming off of an embarrassing loss to Kentucky and then gets extra time to prepare for the Egg Bowl off of a bye week. Win those two, and Ole Miss is a playoff team for the first time. Easy enough, right?
8. Oregon (8-1)
After coming in lower than expected in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, Oregon saw its title hopes flash before its eyes during a tough test in the rain against Iowa on Saturday. However, Dan Lanning and company got a gritty victory to get to 8-1.
Things aren't getting much easier for Oregon after a Week 12 home game against Minnesota. The Ducks will take on a red-hot USC team before playing against Washington in Seattle to close the season. A trip to the conference title game feels far-fetched at the moment, but three more wins will get the Ducks in the field.
9. Notre Dame (7-2)
After coming in at No. 10 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, Notre Dame is right on track to make the CFP with three more wins. The Irish got a bit of a break when the news came out that Navy quarterback Blake Horvath would miss Saturday's clash, and Marcus Freeman and company took full advantage in a dominant 49-10 win.
Notre Dame has a tough test against a ranked Pitt team coming in Week 12 before closing the year with games against a pair of struggling teams in Stanford and Syracuse. The Irish should be more worried about hosting a game than just making the field at this point.
10. Vanderbilt (8-2)
Our final at-large spot is still going to Vanderbilt, even though it would likely be Texas if the field were made today. The Commodores still have a much easier path to 10-2 than the Longhorns (games against Georgia and Texas A&M) and Oklahoma (at Alabama in Week 12) do.
After barely escaping an upset bid from Auburn, the Commodores close the year with a game against Kentucky and a road game against Tennessee. Clark Lea and company may need some help, but two wins will more than likely do the trick.
11. Georgia Tech (8-1)
Who wants to win the ACC? A week after Georgia Tech fell out of the top spot with a loss to NC State, Louisville and Virginia both took upset losses in conference play on Saturday night. Duke also took an out-of-conference defeat to UConn, so it was overall an unimpressive showing for the league as a whole.
Now, five teams (Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt, SMU, Duke) are all at the top of the conference with one loss. A lot of that will sort itself out, but the Yellow Jackets look like the best of that bunch at the moment. Brent Key and company have games against Boston College and Pitt to close conference play before a date with Georgia to close the regular season.
12. South Florida (7-2)
The Group of Five race was muddied some more on Friday night when Memphis took a home loss to Tulane. The Tigers now have two conference losses and are more than likely out of the race in the American, meaning a new team must take its place.
Now, five teams in the American — Navy, South Florida, Tulane, North Texas and East Carolina — all have one loss in conference play. South Florida has the best resume of the bunch at the moment with non-conference wins over Florida and Boise State, so it gets the spot for now.
Outside of the American, keep an eye out for James Madison. The Dukes only have one loss, on the road against Louisville, and could get into the field if both South Florida and Tulane fall by the wayside.
In the mix: Texas, Oklahoma, Utah, BYU, USC
Quarterfinal Predictions
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 7 Texas Tech
Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Indiana vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Orange Bowl: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 5 Georgia
Semifinal Predictions
Fiesta Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Alabama
Peach Bowl: No. 2 Texas A&M vs. No. 3 Indiana
National Championship Prediction
No. 1 Ohio State over No. 2 Texas A&M
