Two ranked Big Ten teams are set to clash in Week 4 as Illinois visits Indiana. This will be the 74th meeting between the two schools in football, and Illinois leads the series 46-25-2. Illinois won the last meeting between the two schools. The Illini defeated the Hoosiers in 2023 48-45 in overtime. The two are both undefeated heading into this clash, which could have CFP implications. It is time to make three bold predictions on this Big Ten showdown.
Illinois has played great this year, starting the season 3-0. It was an easy game to open the year, defeating Western Illinois 52-3. The team hit the road in Week 2 in what was expected to be a close game with Duke. Duke kept it close in the first half, scoring a touchdown with eight seconds left to make it a one-point game. Regardless, Illinois dominated the second half, winning 45-19. In Week 3, the Fighting Illini were great again, defeating Western Michigan 38-0.
Meanwhile, Indiana is also 3-0 on the season. The Hoosiers struggled to start in Week 1, facing Old Dominion. Colton Joseph scored on the first offensive play of the day, running the ball 75 yards for an ODU 7-0 lead. Indiana scored on a punt return at the end of the first quarter to tie the game. The offense did not score a touchdown until late in the first half, and Indiana won the game 27-14. Since then, the Hoosiers have been dominant, winning over Kennesaw State and Indiana State by a combined 129-9.
Gabe Jacas makes a major impact in the game
Fernando Mendoza has been great this year for Indiana. The quarterback has completed 55 of 76 passes for 708 yards and nine touchdowns. Furthermore, he has not thrown an interception and has been sacked just once. He has also run for two touchdowns on the ground.
The former Cal quarterback has also gotten plenty of help from his top receivers. Omar Cooper Jr. has hauled in 13 receptions for 299 yards and four touchdowns, while Elijah Sarratt has 15 catches for 164 yards and three scores. Mendoza has not faced pressure yet this season, and the results have shown how well he can pass when he has protection.
In his last season at Cal, Mendoza showed his struggles with pressure as he played behind a poor offensive line. While playing under constant pressure, the quarterback was sacked 41 times, one of the highest totals in all of FBS. Meanwhile, his pressure-to-sack rate was at 25.6 percent, one of the worst in the nation. Also, all six of his interceptions in the 2024 season came under pressure. The Indiana quarterback needs time, or he struggles.
The run game has been solid this year, which helps keep pressure off the quarterback. Still, Illinois is going to put pressure on Mendoza.
Gabe Jacas has been great so far this year. He already has 3.5 sacks in just three games, while also having a pass breakup and two forced fumbles. He has recorded at least half a sack in every game so far this year and will be in the backfield regularly in this game.
Moreover, Gentle Hunt has been solid on the interior of the defensive line. Not only has he been solid against the run, but he also has 1.5 sacks on the year. Indiana is currently 14th in the nation in quarterback sack rate allowed, but with Illinois' pass rush, which already has 10 sacks this year, the rate is going to climb. Jacas is going to lead that charge.
Kaelon Black leads Indiana
The Illinois defense has been solid this year. The team is currently 10th in the nation in opponents' points per game and 37th in opponent yards per game. The defense has been strong against the run, sitting 26th in the nation in opponent rushing yards per game. Much of that is due to high pass rates from teams trying to play catch-up. Indiana will most likely not have to play catch-up in this game and have a strong running attack. The team is third in the nation in rushing yards per game.
One of the biggest reasons for the strong running attack has been the work of Lee Beebe Jr. He has run for 209 yards and a touchdown this year. Beebe suffered an injury in Week 3 and is out for the year. This will likely require Kaelon Black to step up in this game. He has already run for 217 yards and a touchdown this year, averaging over six yards per carry. He ran the ball just seven times against Indiana State but for 68 yards in the game.
Furthermore, he has been a big-play threat this year. He has had a run of 29 yards or longer in every game this season. With the pass defense and pass rush for the Illini being solid, the run game will be big for Indiana, and Black is going to lead the way.
Red zone success decides the winner
Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer has been highly successful this year. He has completed 56 of 78 passes for 709 yards and eight touchdowns. He has also not been intercepted but has been sacked nine times for negative 62 yards. Still, Altmyer can use his legs when need be. He has run eight times for 50 yards and a touchdown. Altmyer has been great in the red zone as well this year.
Illinois is one of the best in the nation in the red zone, having a 100 percent conversion rate so far. The defense has also been solid in the red zone, sitting ninth in the nation in opponent red-zone scoring. Meanwhile, Indiana is 84th in the nation in red-zone scoring this season and 95th in opponent red-zone scoring.
Both teams are Top 10 in the nation in turnover margin, while both have great defensive units and solid offenses. The difference in this game is going to be decided in the red zone. Currently, odds provided by FanDuel have Indiana as a 5.5-point favorite. With the Illini being the better team in the red zone, they will not only cover but pull off the upset in this one.
