Brian Kelly’s approval rating in Baton Rouge has cratered, and the buyout math explains why the anger isn’t likely to result in his exit right now. After the Vanderbilt loss, the Commodores’ first win over LSU in 35 years, a growing segment of the fan base called for change.
But firing Kelly after this season would reportedly trigger a payout of 90% of the roughly $58.2 million left on his deal, about $52.38 million paid in monthly installments through 2031, subject to mitigation if he lands another job. That price tag dwarfs most recent buyouts and makes an immediate move highly unlikely.
The Tigers fell to 5-3 following an embarrassing home loss to Texas A&M in Death Valley, and pressure has only intensified as Kelly is now 7-6 in SEC play over the last two seasons. Even so, with a buyout north of $53 million and six years remaining on his contract, LSU is expected to let the final stretch play out.
Sources told On3 that coaching staff changes could come as soon as Sunday afternoon, signaling that adjustments are imminent even if the head coach stays. LSU’s offense sits at No. 83 nationally, averaging 366.6 yards per game, which places a spotlight on the side of the ball most likely to see turnover, per On3.
That trajectory has heightened the scrutiny on a program that, under Kelly, has not matched championship standards. The combination of uneven SEC results and a middling offense has created the conditions for a shake-up without triggering the most expensive option on the table.
Compounding the turbulence, roster churn is back in the headlines. Starting cornerback Ashton Stamps, who had started 16 straight games for LSU and ranked top five in the SEC in passes defended last season, re-entered the transfer portal, per Shea Dixon of On3.
After being redshirted and falling behind PJ Woodland, transfer Mansoor Delane, and freshman DJ Pickett, Stamps played only one game for 18 snaps this season. LSU has seen additional portal movement in recent months, a reminder that depth charts can flip fast when competition spikes.
If changes are coming in Baton Rouge, they’re far more likely to hit the staff than the head coach. The buyout makes that clear; the standings and the stat sheet make the case.
