The first round of the College Football Playoff will take place on Friday and Saturday as the rest of the quarterfinals will be filled out. On Friday, Oklahoma and Alabama will get things going before Miami and Texas A&M do battle on Saturday afternoon.
This battle between the Hurricanes and the Aggies is the most intriguing matchup of the first round for a couple of reasons. Tulane and James Madison are massive underdogs against Ole Miss and Oregon, respectively, and Alabama and Oklahoma already played so we have an idea of what that game will look like.
Miami and Texas A&M offers a bit of a contrast of strengths, with Texas A&M's explosive offense taking on Miami and its stout, athletic defense. However, both of the other units are plenty capable of big things as well, so this game could offer a wide range of outcomes.
Texas A&M has home-field advantage as the No. 7 seed, while Miami has to go on the road after just sneaking into the field as the final at-large over Notre Dame. Kyle Field offers one of the best home-field advantages in the sport and will be a major challenge for the Hurricanes to overcome on Saturday.
However, Miami has what it takes to get the job done. Here are 2 reasons why it will be Mario Cristobal and company pulling off a CFP upset in the first round.
Miami's pass protection can keep Carson Beck clean
Carson Beck has taken a lot of heat during his career, booth at Georgia and this season at Miami, but he is still one of the best quarterbacks in the country when he can operate from a clean pocket. Miami has a lot of weapons on the outside that Beck can get the ball to if he is not under pressure all day, including super-freshman Malachi Toney.
Thankfully for Beck, the Miami offensive line has done a brilliant job of keeping him clean this season. Beck has 387 total dropbacks so far in 2025 and has only been pressured on 57 of them, according to PFF. That's less than 15% of the time, which is a shockingly low number.
The splits when Beck is pressured versus when he's not pressured are even more eye-opening. When he is kept clean, the Georgia transfer completes more than 77% of his passes, racks up nine yards per attempt and has 23 passing touchdowns to seven interceptions. Even more notably, Beck has just four turnover-worthy plays on clean dropbacks, according to PFF, accounting for just over 1% of those plays.
When he is under pressure, things get pretty ugly. When the pocket is not clean, Beck is just 20-for-39 with 260 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. His turnover-worthy play rate jumps all the way up to 7.6%, so the blueprint is clear on how to get mistakes out of the veteran signal-caller.
This is a strength-on-strength battle, as Texas A&M is tied with Oklahoma for the FBS lead with 41 sacks on the year, averaging more than three per game.
One matchup to watch up front when Miami has the ball is a battle of two future first-round picks. Cashius Howell is one of the best edge rushers in the country and ranks in a tie for fourth in the nation with 11.5 sacks on the season. While Howell will move around a bit, he will see a lot of Miami right tackle Francis Mauigoa. With a big College Football Playoff performance, Mauigoa could be the first offensive lineman selected in the draft this spring, and a matchup with Howell could be the perfect springboard for him.
Overall, Miami has the advantage up front on this side of the ball with everyone except for Howell, and that will be enough to keep Beck clean and help the Miami offense have a big day on Saturday.
Miami's run defense will be the difference when Texas A&M has the ball
Texas A&M boasts a very balanced offense with the ability to pick up explosive plays both on the ground and through the air. Marcel Reed can do damage with both his arm and his legs, and his accuracy has taken a step forward in 2025 even with some inconsistency popping up late in the season.
Reed has two of the most explosive wide receivers in the country at his disposal in KC Concepcion and Mario Craver. All you have to do is turn on Texas A&M's win over Notre Dame early in the season, when the two stars combined for 289 yards on just 11 catches in a win over the Irish on the road.
However, this Texas A&M offense really thrives when it can run the football effectively. That allows Reed, who is still very raw as a true dropback passer, to operate against more basic defenses in neutral down-and-distances.
The Aggies might be getting reinforcements back in the running game for this tilt, as star tailback Le'Veon Moss is listed as questionable after missing the last six games with a lower leg injury. Even if Moss isn't able to go or isn't at 100%, Rueben Owens II, EJ Smith and Amari Daniels are very capable backs who can get the job done.
There's one big problem with that. Miami has one of the best front sevens in the entire country, with NFL talent all over the board. That allows the Hurricanes to boast the No. 7-ranked run defense in the nation, giving up just 86.8 yards per game on the ground.
Not only do Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor form one of the best edge-rushing duos in college football, but both of them specialize in stopping the run. Between the two, they have 30 “stops” against the run on the season, defined by PFF as tackles that force an unsuccessful play for the offense.
If Miami can take away the Texas A&M run game, Reed will be forced to make plays out of pure dropback situations on obvious passing downs.
What does operating out of second- and third-and-longs without a reliable running game take away? The play action game. That is terrible news for Reed, who has mind-blowing play action splits this season.
When Reed is throwing in play action, he is an absolute wizard: 73% completion percentage and 10.9 yards per attempt with 17 touchdowns to just one interception. When he isn't using play action, he is completing just 56.1% of his passes at 7.5 yards per attempt and eight touchdowns to a whopping nine interceptions.
Take the Texas game for example. Reed threw two picks, both of which came at the end of the game with the Aggies trailing, meaning obvious passing situations for the offense.
Most quarterbacks have better numbers on play-action plays, but the discrepancy in Reed's profile is one of the wildest in the country. Miami's run defense should have the advantage, which will force Reed into those dropback scenarios and make him cough up some mistakes. That will be the difference that will send Miami to the Cotton Bowl to take on Ohio State on New Year's Eve.
