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There are four college football games this weekend between teams ranked in the third iteration of the College Football Playoff Committee's top 25 rankings. The biggest one will take place in Corvallis, Oregon when the Oregon State Beavers take on the Washington Huskies in a huge football game. The Huskies are fifth in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, while the Beavers are 11th. Washington has scuffed a little bit the last few weeks. Four of their last six games have been decided by one possession, and the other two were decided by eight and nine points, respectively. But the Huskies are still undefeated, and that is all that matters. If they stay that way, they will make the College Football Playoff.
Oregon State, however, will be a tricky opponent, especially at home. The Beavers weren't playing their best ball of the season before last week's 62-17 drubbing of Stanford, but they managed to pull that off. The Beavers are also undefeated at home this season and allow the fourth-fewest yards per game of any team in the Pac-12. This will be a great game and a game with massive College Football Playoff implications. That's one prediction, but this game warrants a few more bold Oregon State predictions.
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Damien Martinez runs for at least 150 yards
Oregon State's Damien Martinez is one of the best running backs in college football. He's also currently on a roll. He's run for at least 115 yards in each of his last two games and has averaged 7.25 yards per carry in those games. Martinez is coming off a game against Stanford where he ran for 146 yards and four touchdowns on just 15 carries. Those four touchdowns all came in the first half!
Damien Martinez in the first half 😳
4 TDs
136 rushing yards pic.twitter.com/4tlaAiRMT2— Pac-12 Network (@Pac12Network) November 12, 2023
Martinez is just carrying on a season-long trend of producing. He leads the Pac-12 in rushing yards, averaging a very healthy 6.6 yards per carry.
Now he gets a Washington defense that gives up on average 140.3 rushing yards per game. For context, he just ran for 146 yards against a Stanford defense that gives up 142.2 rushing yards per game. If Oregon State is going to win this game, they're going to need to keep Washington's high-flying offense led by Michael Penix Jr., Rome Odunze, and Ja'Lynn Polk off the field. The best way to do so is by running the ball and keeping the clock moving. That means feeding Damien Martinez early and often.
Washington wins the game
Normally, choosing the fifth-ranked team to win wouldn't be a bold proclamation. But in this case, it is.
Vegas originally listed Washington as the 1.5-point favorites in this matchup, but those odds have flipped. The Beavers are now favored to win this game, with Vegas citing them as 2.5-point favorites.
It's understandable to see why that's the case. As mentioned earlier, the Huskies have been in absolute dogfights for the last month and a half and have flat-out not played well against inferior opponents like Arizona State and Stanford. Oregon State is undefeated at home, have a very good coach, and a rock-solid defense that is going to make it tough on anybody they go up against.
But the Oregon State football team hasn't exactly lit the world on fire lately either.
Outside of their trouncing of Stanford, the last two weeks they beat Colorado by only seven and lost to Arizona outright. After a good start to the season, quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is completing only 58.6% of his passes on the season. If Oregon State can get out to an early lead, they have the goods to keep Washington in check. But that is far from a guarantee.
Washington has been able to avoid close calls all year long. They might need to against this week. If they're in that spot again, they pull through and take down the Beavers.
