The Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) visit the Houston Texans (1-11-1) on Sunday. The action kicks off at 1 pm ET. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Chiefs-Texans prediction and pick.
Kansas City enters Sunday's matchup after a tight 34-28 victory over Denver. The Chiefs hold a three-game lead in the AFC West and find themselves tied with the Bills for first place in the AFC. Kansas City is just 4-8-1 against the spread while 54% of their games have gone under.
Houston limps into Sunday's game having lost eight consecutive games. The Texans find themselves eliminated from playoff contention. Houston is 5-7-1 against the spread while 62% of their games have gone under.
Here are the Chiefs-Texans NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Chiefs-Texans Odds
Kansas City Chiefs: -14.5 (-110)
Houston Texans: +14.5 (-110)
Over: 49.5 (-108)
Under: 49.5 (-112)
Why The Chiefs Could Cover The Spread
Kansas City has continued their regular season dominance this season and has now won 10+ games for eight consecutive years. The Chiefs have arguably the best offense in the NFL that ranks second in scoring and first in offensive DVOA. They've been vulnerable on defense, however, ranking just 18th in points allowed and 25th in defensive DVOA. Star defensive lineman Chris Jones and wide receiver Kadarius Toney are both questionable for Sunday's game due to injuries.
The Chiefs rely heavily on quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes ranks among the favorites to win MVP this season. Coming into this week, he recorded 4160 passing yards (1st) and 33 touchdowns (1st). Kansas City's pass attack has been elite all season as they rank first in yards per game (309) and second in pass offense DVOA. KC has a number of capable weapons from Mahomes to choose from, but look for him to get Travis Kelce involved early after two quiet weeks. Kelce ranks seventh in the NFL in receptions (81), fourth in yards (1039), and is tied for the most touchdowns (12). He's been held under 75 yards and five catches in three consecutive games, however, so expect Mahomes to make him a focal point on Sunday.
While Mahomes and his slew of receivers will be dealing on Sunday, the Kansas City rush game could play a major role in ensuring they cover a hefty spread. The Chiefs are a mediocre run team that ranks just 18th in rushing yards per game. That being said, they're matched up with a Texans run defense that allows the sixth-most rushing yards per attempt and ranks 27th in rush defense DVOA. Rookie running back Isiah Pacheco has come on strong in recent weeks – averaging 79 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry over his last five games. He's a tasty bet to crush his over on yards and has a strong chance to score against a vulnerable Houston defense.
Why The Texans Could Cover The Spread
Houston finds itself as the single-worst team in football this season having won just one game thus far. The Texans don't have a quarterback and that shows as they rank 30th in scoring and 31st in offensive DVOA. Their defense isn't great either but it's at least been respectable ranking 26th in points allowed and 20th in defensive DVOA. The Texans have a number of players on the injury report for Sunday's game, with wide receivers Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins as well as running back Dameon Pierce not expected to play.
If Houston is going to cover, they're going to need to find a way to score points. That starts at quarterback where no one knows what head coach Love Smith plans on doing. Davis Mills started their last game even though the team benched him two weeks prior. However, he split snaps with backup Jeff Driskel. They relied on journeyman wide receiver Chris Moore on the outside and he certainly delivered. Moore had a career game – recording 10 catches for 124 yards. KC is vulnerable through the air, ranking just 25th in pass defense DVOA. If Moore and former Packer Amari Rodgers (four catches for 57 yards and a touchdown) can continue their success from last week, Houston has the potential to give the Chiefs a similar scare that the Cowboys experienced.
Houston proved the ability to move the ball into opposing territory last week. When they do, they should feel confident in kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn's ability to tack on points. The veteran made all three of his kicks last week with two of them coming from 50+.
Final Chiefs-Texans Prediction & Pick
Kansas City is going to win this game. They've been shaky enough against the spread that I'm more interested in the total. Houston's offense is abysmal but they're decent on defense and should keep KC under 40.
Final Chiefs-Texans Prediction & Pick: Under 49.5 (-110)
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