The NFL playoff race heats up this week as the Bills fight to keep their postseason hopes alive while the Lions and Broncos clash with a playoff spot on the line. This week’s matchups will help separate the contenders from the pretenders as the playoff picture becomes clearer. Keep reading for my best NFL picks for Week 15!

All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.

NFL Odds: Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions

Broncos: +4.5 (-110), +184 moneyline

Lions: -4.5 (-110), -220 moneyline 

Denver is surging at the right time to make a playoff push, but it is fair to question how much of this surge is an improvement versus how much of it is the teams they are facing. Sure, the Broncos have won six of their past seven games. Unfortunately, the opposing quarterbacks they have faced won’t all inspire much confidence in the Broncos going forward. It’s difficult to truly gauge your improvement as a team when you are facing backup signal callers such as Dorian Thompson-Robinson. However, they also held the Chiefs to single digits, providing hope that maybe this defense is for real. One thing is for sure: They have come a long way from giving up 70 to the Dolphins. We’ll see if they’re improved enough this weekend.

Russell Wilson has shown some improvement in his play from last season, but he is still far from being the Russell Wilson album.

It seems like any time the Broncos do something good offensively people are clamoring to say that Wilson is back. A lot of this may be nostalgia, but unfortunately for the Broncos and for Wilson fans, he is not truly back. The Broncos’ defense is decent, however, having made significant improvements throughout the season. 

Looking at the Lions, Jared Goff has been an above-average quarterback this year, but Detroit’s offense is being hyped much more than they actually deserve. They have a decent offense, maybe even a good offense. But they aren’t great.

Denver’s defense has held opponents below 20 games in five out of their last seven games. Unfortunately, it is difficult to measure whether this was because of a legitimate improvement in Denver’s defense or a lack of quality opponents.

It is likely a mix of both, and in a sense, the Lions will prove to be a real test and this game will tell us more about who these Broncos really are. We’ll also learn more about how good Detroit’s offense really is.

This game will reveal which team is for real and which team isn’t quite there yet. My money is on it being a close game either way, likely coming down to the final drive. I’ll take the Broncos and the points.

NFL Pick: Broncos +4.5 (-110)

NFL Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers

Buccaneers: +3.5 (-115), +152 moneyline

Packers: -3.5 (-105), -180 moneyline

Jordan Love has been a revelation this season for the Packers but the Packers are a young, inexperienced team, and they are still growing. The next step in their growth is to improve their consistency and begin to win the games that they are supposed to win. Those are the two hallmarks of a great team, and the Packers are yet to get to that point. This is exemplified, in their tough outing against the Giants. Lots and the Packers were undone by turnovers in that game, and the Giants took advantage. It’s difficult to win a game when you lose the turnover battle and that will have to be fixed this week to beat the Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers are a very up-and-down team, and Green Bay should be able to win this game.  Love and the Packers need to correct their mistakes and play a relatively turnover-free game. If the Packers are able to win the turnover battle, they should win this game, and I think they will do just that. Back the home team in this one.

NFL Pick: -3.5 (-105)

NFL Odds: Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills

Cowboys: +1.5 (-104), +116 moneyline

Bills: -1.5 (-118), -136 moneyline

At first glance, the Dallas Cowboys are one of the best teams in the league. However, when you squint and take a closer look, the picture becomes a bit more blurry. At home, the Cowboys are nothing short of dominant. Just last week, they thoroughly dismantled Jalen Hurts in the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Bills are a unique situation in their own right. On paper, they are one of the most talented teams in the league, if not the most talented the field. We’ll see if they show up at home against an elite team. I think the urgency and high level of competition will bring out the best version of the Bills this weekend.

NFL Pick: Bills -1.5 (-118)