We have reached the final week of the 2023 NFL regular season. Week 18 always brings an extra layer of intrigue, as some teams will be resting their starters with a playoff seed secured while other teams will be going all out to win and make the playoffs or fight for better seeding and home-field advantage. Knowing these storylines can give bettors an edge. Keep reading for my best NFL picks for Week 18. Be sure to stay tuned to our NFL odds series for more on betting around the league. 

All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.

NFL Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Steelers: -3 (-115), -172 moneyline

Ravens: +3 (-105), +144 moneyline

The Steelers are fighting for their playoff lives in Week 18. The team has had plenty of ups and downs this season, but they are firing on all cylinders heading into the final game of the regular season.

Mike Tomlin has his faults as a coach, but over the past two weeks, it is clear that his players are willing to give their all for him.

Just a few weeks after multiple instances of lack of effort led to widespread calls for the Steelers to trade second-year wideout George Pickens, the young receiver has completely turned things around in the Steel City. Pickens is engaged in all aspects of the game and has put up two of the best statistical games of his career. 

This is a team that is gelling nicely and learning how to play together. The team has found their identity as a run-first offense behind the strength of Najee Harris and the elusiveness of Jalen Warren. 

Both players run with anger and physicality, and the offensive line has found their rhythm when it comes to run blocking.

When discussing the Pittsburgh Steelers, we must talk about the quarterback position. Plenty of ink has been spilled discussing former offensive coordinator Matt Canada, quarterbacks Kenny Pickett and Trubisky and to what extent each of these individuals was responsible for holding the office back from reaching its full potential.

Third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph has injected new life and energy into the team, and it has shown on the field. 

It has long been speculated that one of the main reasons for Pickens’ attitude problems was his lack of production on the field, and his belief that his skill set was not being utilized correctly.

Since Rudolph has taken over, he has shown no hesitancy to take shots to Pickens down the field. This has led to two of the best games of Pickens’ young career, which in turn has led to a much more engaged Pickens on the sidelines and in all other aspects of the game.

He has been blocking energetically, and celebrating with teammates, and we saw him make a perfect form tackle on a defensive back who had appeared to make an interception last week.

Everything is clicking for the Steelers, and they will win this game convincingly to set themselves up for a chance to make the playoffs and make a Cinderella run.

NFL Pick: Steelers -3 (-115)

NFL Odds: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

Texans: -1.5 (-110), -118 moneyline

Colts: +1.5 (-110), +100 moneyline

The Colts won the first iteration of this matchup all the way back in Week 2, but they had Anthony Richardson for part of that game before he left with an injury.

Texans star quarterback CJ Stroud started to show glimpses of his potential in that game, throwing for nearly 400 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Bettors should feel comfortable backing the Texans to get revenge this weekend. For all of the potential that he showed back in Week 2, Stroud has developed nicely for Houston and the team has grown around him.

Look for Stroud to protect the football while throwing for 400 yards and a trio of touchdowns as the Texans punch their ticket back to the postseason in the first year of the CJ Stroud era.

NFL Pick: Texans moneyline (-118)

NFL Odds: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Eagles: -5.5 (-110), -240 moneyline

Giants: +5,5 (-110), +198 moneyline

The Philadelphia Eagles travel to the Meadowlands to take on the New York Giants in Week 18. While the Giants on paper have nothing to gain and draft position to lose, this Giants team led by Brian Daboll has turned out to be a remarkably gritty unit that scratches and claws for every victory that they can earn.

In contrast, this Eagles team did not look like their dominant selves of prior years in 2023, even as they got off to a blistering 10-1 start to the season. In recent weeks, they have fallen off completely, losing four of their past five games.

This includes a brutal loss to the hapless Arizona Cardinals along with two blowout losses against the Cowboys and 49ers. In fact, Philly’s only win during this stretch came against this same Giants team, and the Eagles almost gave that game away in the second half.

This Giants team may not have a ton of talent, but they certainly have pride. This should be enough to keep the game relatively close against an Eagles team that is stumbling and may be without multiple key players.

NFL Pick: Giants +5.5 (-110)