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The Chicago Bears will be in full control of the 2024 offseason. They are in the most enviable of all positions to be in outside of the team that hoists the Lombardi trophy: they have the first overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft with more picks to boot and already have a quarterback they can talk themselves into being the face of their franchise. That would be Justin Fields, who has posted career-highs in completion percentage (61%), passing yards (2,414), and passer rating (85.8) all with a game to go.
But it hasn't been all rosy with Fields this season. Fields ranks 22nd among qualified quarterbacks in ESPN's QBR stat, where his score this season sits at 46.3. In terms of EPA (Expected Points Added) plus CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expectation) composite score, Fields ranks 22nd among qualified quarterbacks. The only quarterbacks Fields is ahead of? Gardner Minshew, Will Levis, Kyler Murray, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, Josh Dobbs, Kenny Pickett, Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, and Aidan O'Connell. That's not exactly a murderer's row of quarterbacks.
Fields is still a work in progress as a passer but is already one of the most dynamic rushers at quarterback in the NFL. In 39 games in the NFL, Fields has run for 3,193 yards, averaging 81.87 yards per game on the ground. But, while that is an immensely valuable tool to have for quarterbacks in today's game, games are won by throwing the ball, and Fields has not excelled there yet.
It's typically hard for teams to move on from quarterbacks because they don't have a great alternative to go to. Chicago does. They already have locked the number one overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which could have two blue-chip quarterback prospects in Caleb Williams of USC and Drake Maye of North Carolina. The Bears could draft either of them and trade Fields, keep the pick and draft a player like Marvin Harrison Jr., or trade the pick for a massive bounty of picks. They have every option at their disposal, including the route of trading Fields. If they decide to trade Fields, two teams stand out as potential destinations.
Atlanta Falcons
No team needs Justin Fields more than the Atlanta Falcons. Not only has head coach Arthur Smith failed to properly deploy his franchise building blocks on offense in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, but his quarterbacks have failed to get them the ball in a consistent and orderly fashion. London had a QB Rating per target of 94.1, which ranked 45th among wide receivers according to playerprofiler.com. Kyle Pitts' was 93.4, which ranked 24th among tight ends.
Those guys did their job; London averaged 1.97 yards per route run this season, while Pitts averaged 1.58. But they simply couldn't get enough out of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke and Arthur Smith's archaic style of offense. While it is possible the Falcons could land a Michael Penix Jr. type or Jayden Daniels in the NFL Draft, that is far from a guarantee, and it is no guarantee that player will be as good as Fields is right now. Justin Fields is also only 21 months older than Daniels and 14 months older than Penix Jr. He'd be the best quarterback the Falcons could acquire this offseason.
Washington Commanders
Change has already come for the Commanders after former owner Daniel Snyder sold the team to an ownership group led by Josh Harris and Magic Johnson. More could be coming. The team trot out Sam Howell as their starter, and while he posted solid counting stats across the board this season, he finished 25th in EPA plus CPOE composite score this season and was benched for Jacoby Brissett in Week 17. Howell only started that game because Brissett got injured during the week.
Howell seems to not be the answer there and it would be a surprise if Ron Rivera kept his job after this season. With no quarterback answer in the building at the moment, the Commanders could look to Fields. They also currently hold the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It would probably behoove them to draft either Williams or Maye, but trading for Fields and getting a bounty for that pick themselves could be a beneficial move for them as well.
