The Baltimore Ravens got off to a nightmarish 1-5 start to the season, and all hope was looking lost for one of the Super Bowl favorites coming into the season. Lamar Jackson and a number of key defensive players were injured, and the Ravens continued to free fall all the way to the bottom of the AFC North.
Fast-forward a few months, and things are looking much brighter in Baltimore. The Ravens have won five games in a row and are now tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the division lead. Jim Harbaugh's group has gotten healthier and turned some things around on defense, spearheaded by the move to bring star safety Kyle Hamilton back in the box and into the nickel.
However, things haven't always been as pretty on the offensive end. The lethal running game that the Ravens have become known for under Todd Monken has deteriorated, in part because Lamar Jackson has looked slowed by a number of injuries and Derrick Henry is a half-step slower than his prime self.
In Week 13, the Ravens will get a chance to right the ship on that side of the ball when they take on the Cincinnati Bengals, who currently have the worst defense in the NFL, on Thanksgiving night. Can they turn it around? If they can't, what does it mean for their Super Bowl hopes?
Ravens have struggled against bad defenses of late
Since Lamar Jackson became the full-time starter, the Ravens have consistently had one of the best offenses in the NFL. That has become especially true since Baltimore brought in Monken as its offensive coordinator, as he has been able to mesh the always-explosive running game with a well-designed passing game that maximizes Jackson's strengths.
However, the Ravens' offense has cratered in almost all areas in 2025. With the obvious caveat that Jackson has missed three games due to a hamstring injury, Baltimore currently ranks 19th in the NFL in EPA per play (minus-0.05) through 12 weeks. Here are the teams directly above the Ravens: the Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants. That's not exactly the company you expect the Ravens to be keeping on that side of the ball.
The Ravens have been the best rushing offense in the league during Jackson's time as the starter, but they are just outside of the top 10 on a per-play basis this season. All of the explosive elements of this ground attack have disappeared; Henry isn't as quick as he once was, the offensive line isn't generating the lanes for him to get that elite straight-line speed going, and the quarterback run game has been nonexistent with Jackson's injury issues.
Jackson missed three games with a hamstring injury, and it appears that has been affecting him in the four games since he returned as well. He isn't as dynamic as a scrambler, is unable to extend plays like he usually is, and Monken is staying away from designed runs for him in key spots. He has also popped up on the injury report in recent weeks with toe, knee, and ankle issues, so he is clearly banged up.
Baltimore has played a pretty soft schedule since Jackson's return, but it has still recorded negative-EPA per play in each of its last three games. In Week 12, against a depleted New York Jets defense, the Ravens mustered just 241 total yards and 23 points.
How Baltimore can attack this Bengals defense
The Bengals' defense has been truly awful this season, one of the worst units in recent memory. Opponents are generating 0.15 EPA per play against Cincinnati, which is miles ahead of the next-worst defense (Washington at plus-0.10).
There isn't any redeeming factor for this defense. It's the worst against the pass, third-worst against the run, fourth-worst in pressure rate and second-worst in sack rate. The Bengals blitz less than anybody, and opposing quarterbacks have been able to sit in the pocket and dice them up, especially while Trey Hendrickson has been sidelined due to a hip injury.
Jackson should be able to cut up this Bengals defense, especially up the spine where Cincinnati has struggled. The Bengals are playing a lot of young players at linebacker and their safety play has been terrible this season, which should play right into the hands of a Baltimore offense that loves to target tight end Mark Andrews and some of its auxiliary running backs in the passing game.
Jackson's mobility has been hindered by his injuries, but his ability as a passer has been below his standard this season as well. Despite that, a defense that has allowed at least 400 total yards on five occasions this season should give him a chance to find a rhythm and get going for the home stretch of the season.
What happens if the Ravens can't break through?
Well, first of all, Baltimore would be at risk of being upset on Thanksgiving night by a Bengals team that is getting Joe Burrow back from injury for this game. In the bigger picture, it would be an ugly reveal for what this Ravens team actually is.
All year, the Ravens have gotten the benefit of the doubt as a Super Bowl contender from fans and pundits alike because of its roster talent and the pedigree of Jackson and Henry. The defense is inching closer and closer to that level, while the offense has continued to struggle.
If that unit can't get going against this Bengals defense, maybe that's just what it is: a middling unit that can't contend in a crowded AFC. However, the opportunity to use this game as a springboard into contention is what makes this Thanksgiving tilt so enticing.
