If not for the innate chaos that their division brings, the Baltimore Ravens would be in deep trouble by now. After a sluggish start marred by an injury to Lamar Jackson, it seemed like the Ravens were out of the playoff picture. However, the Pittsburgh Steelers' collapse in recent weeks and Jackson's return gave Baltimore an opportunity to steal the AFC North from under their noses.
In true AFC North fashion, though, the universe decided to throw another curveball at the division. The Ravens were in a prime position to take a good hold on the division against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, powered by Joe Burrow's return and a surprisingly stingy defense, Cincinnati upset Baltimore on Thanksgiving. Now, not only have the Ravens kept the Steelers in the hunt for the division, but they've also left open a crack for Cincinnati to crash the AFC North party.
If not for a Steelers loss this week, the Ravens' playoff odds would've significantly worsened. After Week 13, what are Baltimore's odds of making it to the postseason? Let's look at what their DVOA, as well as ESPN and The Athletic's playoff prediction models, say about their odds.
FTN's DVOA
DVOA, or Defense-Adjusted Value over Average, is a statistic that measures a team's performance based on their opponents. In essence, it's a statistic that tries to account for a team's opponents and their strengths and measures how good they are based on how they've looked against said opponents. It's also used as a predictor for which teams will make the playoffs based on their upcoming schedule.
According to FTN's simulations, the Ravens' odds of making it to the playoffs are at 51.2%. However, it's worth noting that their simulations also say that Baltimore has a near 0% chance of making it in through the Wild Card round. This essentially means that it's a division title of bust for the Ravens in the coming weeks.
ESPN's Football Power Index
Similar to DVOA, ESPN uses their own metric, Football Power Index, to make predictions for the rest of the season. According to their website, “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.”
ESPN is giving the Ravens a slightly more optimistic outlook on their playoff chances. According to their most recent predictions article, the FPI has the Ravens' playoff odds at around 60%. The Ravens' chances of winning the division sit at around the same number, implying the same conclusion from DVOA: if Baltimore doesn't win the AFC North, they're not making it to the postseason.
The Athletic's NFL Playoff Simulator
Finally, we have The Athletic's playoff simulator. Andrew Mock's predictions favor Baltimore the most out of the three models we're looking at. According to The Athletic, the Ravens' odds of making the playoffs are at 64%.
Like with the rest of the prediction models, The Athletic thinks that if the Ravens don't win the AFC North, then they have a less than 1% chance of making it into the postseason. Interestingly, The Athletic gives the Ravens a 4% chance of winning the Super Bowl this season, much higher than DVOA's predictions (1.2% for their model).
Ravens' playoff outlook this season
With how competitive the AFC Wild Card scene is this season, it's hard to see a team like the Ravens making it through the Wild Card round. Six losses through thirteen weeks is not a good sign for a Wild Card aspirant, especially with teams like the Bills, Colts, Chargers, Chiefs, and Texans lurking in the race.
The Ravens' best bet to maximize their playoff odds at this point is to win their five remaining games. They still have their two games against the Steelers coming up, which will most likely be the deciding factor for the division. Their second game against the Bengals could also be pivotal if Cincinnati rallies and Pittsburgh collapses. Outside of the three division games, they still have a game each against the AFC-leading Patriots and the Packers.
It's not an easy schedule by any measure. Those three AFC North games are going to be brutal, and the Patriots and Packers have been pretty good this season. The Ravens should have the talent to match up against all of these teams. Whether that talent shows up, though, is up to them and them alone as they fight to defend their AFC North title.
