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Who are the Cleveland Browns in 2024?
Are they the team that lost to the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants in Weeks 1 and 3, averaging less than 200 yards passing and 100 yards rushing while surrendering big plays on defense? Or are they the team that largely handled the Jacksonville Jaguars with ease in Week 2, coming just three yards short of 300 total yards in a relatively easy W over the dredges of the AFC South?
At this point, the sample size is just too small to know definitively, but in Week 4, fans might earn a better answer, as Deshaun Watson and company will be facing off against a Las Vegas Raiders team that is missing a few key players and is coming off their own ugly loss in Week 3 against the Cleveland Browns. Needless to say, if there was ever a game for the Browns to get back on track and prove once more that they are a legit contender in the AFC North, this might just be it.
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1. Gardner Minshew struggles without Davante Adams
Through the first three weeks of the 2024 NFL season, the Raiders are one of the better passing teams in the NFL, attempting the sixth-most passes in the league – 111 – for the fourth-most yards – 734 – and three passing touchdowns.
Now granted, part of this might be because the team has been playing from behind for much of the season, as they currently have a point differential of -23 through three games, but it also has to do with Minshew's effectiveness as a passer, as the journeyman gunslinger has completed 73.7 percent of his passes for 747 yards and three touchdowns, even if his three interceptions and QBR of 44.4 do hint at a larger issue under the surface.
In Week 4, however, Minshew will have to prove that he's still a capable passer down his most talented offensive teammate, as Davante Adams has been ruled out for the game alongside Jeff Foreman and Michael Mayer.
How big of a loss is Adams for the Raiders? Well, through the first three weeks of the season, Adams leads the team in passing yards at 209, targets at 27, and is tied for the most receptions with Brock Bowers at 18 and in touchdown receptions with Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, and Alexander Mattison. Losing his production won't just hurt the Raiders from a purely statistical standpoint but will have a tangible impact on the Xs and Os, as Jim Schwartz will be able to play a more aggressive style of defense without having to constantly identify where number 17 is on the field and bracket him off with two defensive backs.
Say what you will about the likes of Meyers, Bowers, Tucker, and company, but none of those players are on Adams' level, and thus, Minshew's job becomes all the more challenging against Cleveland.
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2. Jerome Ford finally has a big game in the starting lineup
Though Nick Chubb is technically a member of the Browns in 2024, his in-season debut is very much still up in the air, as he's currently on PUP and still recovering from a brutal leg injury that resulted in a torn MCL and a damaged ACL.
In his absence, the Browns have largely opted to go with a running back by committee approach to their rushing production, with Jermone Ford leading a unit rounded out by D'Onta Foreman and Pierre Strong, and while they are doing alright, the team's overall production has been among the worst in the NFL, ranking 27th in rushing attempted at 66 and 23rd in rushing yards at 287. Things have gotten so bad that the Browns are one of the few teams in the NFL who have actually allowed more rushing yards than they've recorded, which, considering they rank 13th in rushing yards allowed at 341, signifies a clear failure in planning, not execution.
Fortunately, Ford and company might actually have a good remedy for what ails them in the form of the Raiders' rushing defense, as through three games, they have allowed 458 rushing yards on the season, a mark only two teams have eclipsed.
Doubling down on the run in Week 4 would also give the Browns a chance to dictate the time of possession for the game, as the Raiders likely won't be able to match a ground-and-pound approach, considering they rank last in rushing attempts and yards between Weeks 1 and 3. Taking the ball out of Watson's hands could help to ease the burden of him having to win the game all on his own and give a nice ego boost to a player like Ford, who has only rushed for over 100 yards twice so far in his career and has a career rushing average of just 29.4.
3. The Browns teeter-totter back to 2-2
So, if the Raiders struggle to get things going through the air and the Browns are able to control the time of possession with a strong effort on the ground, the Browns have a pretty good chance to secure the win in Week 4, right?
Yes, while the Raiders can be a tricky team, as they did defeat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2, the loss of Adams really is a crushing blow and could make their rushing attack one-dimensional against a defense that has plenty of talent. If the Browns can keep matriculating the ball down the field consciously, keeping Watson under center instead of Minshew, it will only lead to good results for Cleveland and an evening out of their record at 2-2 to close out September.
