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When the Dallas Cowboys opted to let 2024 leadback Rico Dowdle leave for Carolina only to sign Javonte Williams in free agency for a similar price, it left more than a few fans scratching their heads.
Why not just keep Dowdle, fans wondered, after he broke out after his workload increased down the stretch? Why replace him with a veteran back that Broncos fans were happy to see go, as he just wasn't consistent in 2024?
Well, ESPN Senior NFL writer Bill Barnwell wasn't sure either, to the point where he called Williams a potential bust candidate heading into training camp; a bust candidate who isn't even guaranteed a spot on the 53-man roster heading into the fall.
“Why replace Dowdle with a back who has averaged 3.7 yards per carry and posted the league's fifth-worst success rate since returning from a multi-ligament knee injury in 2023? The Cowboys would probably argue the move makes sense because of Williams' range of abilities. There's a case that he is a more complete back given his body of work as a receiver and pass blocker. Dallas didn't necessarily trust Dowdle with pass blocking until the second half of last season, when they named him the full-time starter,” Barnwell wrote.
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“Dallas' biggest problem on offense last season was in the red zone, where it ranked 31st in conversion rate. I'm not sure Williams really helps there, as he generated minus-7 FDOE over the past two years. Since 2021, the only back with at least 600 carries to post a worse success rate than Williams is Harris. Williams is saying all the right things this offseason about recovering from his injury and being at his best, but he was league-average before the ACL tear and hasn't reached that level since.
“Only $1 million of Williams' $3 million is guaranteed, so there's a slim-but-plausible chance he doesn't even make the active roster in Week 1. I would say it's likely Williams gets there, but that we see him strictly in a rotational role. He's not likely to reach Dowdle's heights in workload or production.”
Fortunately for Williams, he might not be expected to play a bell cow role this fall, so saying goodbye to Dowdle might not be about replacing him one-for-one. The Cowboys drafted two running backs on Day 3 of the 2025 NFL Draft, Jaydon Blue from Texas in the fifth round and Phil Mafah from Clemson in the seventh, and while neither is expected to become the next Ashton Jeanty, both are intriguing options all the same.
Will Williams make the Cowboys' 53-man roster ahead of Week 1? Probably, but as Barnwell wrote, he might be closer to a camp question mark than the next great three-down Dallas rusher.
