The Kansas City Chiefs are losing their longtime vice grip on the AFC West. Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos won in walk-off fashion 22-19 Sunday. But now a new percentage surfaced after KC's defeat — which jeopardizes a 10th straight division crown.

Next Gen Stats released these numbers after Denver's win: The Broncos now hold a 74% chance of winning the division. But Kansas City? The now 5-5 Chiefs sit at a lowly 10%.

Only the Las Vegas Raiders hold a lower shot at winning the crown compared to KC. Yet even the Los Angeles Chargers are ahead of the Chiefs (16% probability) in the division race.

Kansas City once entered the 2025 season staring at an unprecedented 10th straight crown — tying them with the New England Patriots (2009-2018, then added the 2019 title). But that milestone is slowly slipping away from the Chiefs' hands.

How did it unravel for Chiefs against Broncos?

Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz (3) celebrates his game winning filed goal in the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High.
Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
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Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and company started the fourth quarter with promise. Mahomes guided a six-play drive that ate up 73 yards, then ended with a 21-yard touchdown strike to Travis Kelce. The revered tight end shattered a Chiefs record in the process for scoring his 84th career TD.

But KC didn't muster much offense after that score. Denver forced two punts on the Chiefs' next two drives. Nix and the Broncos then built a 10-play drive to eventually win the game — with the QB hitting completions of 20 and 32 yards (Troy Franklin caught the latter).

Denver hasn't won the division since before the arrival of Mahomes. Now the Broncos look like they're about to end their 10-year title winning drought, while snapping Kansas City's reign.