Patriots: 4 bold predictions for Week 2 game vs. Dolphins

In the New England Patriots' Week 2 game against the Miami Dolphins, a lot of eyes will be on Mac Jones and co. as they look to avenge their season-opening loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. With that said, ahead of the Sunday night game, we make our Patriots Week 2 predictions.

Miami enters the game 1-0, adding further importance to this game for both sides as it could very well end up being used as a tiebreaker later in the season. So, let's get to it. Here are four bold Patriots Week 2 predictions for the game.

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4. The Patriots slow down Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill is the obvious center of attention for the Dolphins’ offense in this one, especially after he had 11 receptions for 215 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Los Angeles Chargers. The performance makes him among the early front runners for Offensive Player of the Year and could help Tua Tagovailoa be an MVP candidate (when healthy) for a second straight season.

I wouldn’t expect an award-worthy performance from Hill on Sunday, though. Sure, Hill has a pair of 100-receiving yard games against the Patriots in his career. However, he hasn’t had one since 2018, when Hill was still with the Kansas City Chiefs and catching passes from Patrick Mahomes.

Hill has had some issues against the Patriots since then. He only had 11 receptions for 168 yards in his final three matchups against New England when he was with the Chiefs. Hill got some payback against the Patriots in his Dolphins debut last season, recording eight receptions for 94 yards. But he only had four receptions for 55 yards in the second matchup, with Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson filling in for an injured Tua Tagovailoa.

Jonathan Jones can be credited for helping to slow down Hill. The veteran corner has been the primary corner on Hill over the Patriots’ last few matchups against him. He’s allowed the opposing quarterback to complete just 44 percent of their passes when targeting Hill for a 35.4 passer rating, via MassLive’s Mark Daniels.

Now, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jaylen Waddle had a big day as a result of the Patriots sending extra coverage on Hill. The third-year receiver might only have 209 receiving yards in four career matchups against the Patriots, but he also has a touchdown reception in each of the three games he’s played against New England when Tagovailoa has been at quarterback.

3. Mac Jones throws for 300 yards again

Mac Jones has actually had some fine showings, at least statistically, against the Dolphins. He threw for 281 yards against them in his first NFL start. He had 261 passing yards later that season as he tried to lead the Patriots to a comeback win.

Last season, he threw for a smidge over 200 yards (204 and 213, respectively). But the process appeared to be there in his final game against the Dolphins last season, leading the Patriots to a clutch touchdown drive late in that game.

This time around, Jones certainly has a more competent and cohesive offensive unit around him. That was apparent last Sunday, when he threw for 316 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles. What will help Jones’ passing total on Sunday, though, is the battered offensive line, which might negate its run game for a second straight week. To counter that, expect some more quick hitters and screens again.

Also, no Jalen Ramsey, and DeVante Parker possibly making his season debut will further help this.

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2. The under will hit

Jones will throw for a lot of yards, but I expect a similar issue that’s plagued the Patriots for over the last year to emerge again on Sunday: red-zone scoring.

The Patriots have three of their starting offensive linemen (Trent Brown, Cole Strange, Michael Onwenu) plus one of the fill-in starters for that group (Sidy Sow) on the injury report entering Sunday's game. New England struggled to run the ball last week due to the injuries in the interior of its offensive line, recording just 76 rushing yards on 3.5 yards per carry as it couldn't get anything going on inside rushes.

There were also some moments where the Patriots struggled once they got down the field on Sunday. While they scored three touchdowns, Jones and the offense stalled out in the red zone in two of their biggest drives of the game, turning the ball over on downs twice in the red zone in the fourth quarter. Maybe Parker's potential return could give New England a better red zone threat to fix that, but it's tough to imagine that will be the case.

On the flip side, I expect the Patriots to also keep Tagovailoa in check. Even though he's 4-0 against Bill Belichick in his career, he's averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game (181.5) and the only time the Dolphins have scored over 30 points with Tagovailoa at the helm came when they scored two defensive touchdowns. So, Tagovailoa has the Patriots' number, but he hasn't really killed them, so to speak.

New England's defense also put up an impressive performance last week, with the only touchdown it allowed against Philadelphia coming on short field.

1. The Patriots come away with the upset win at home

As of Friday, the Patriots are three-point underdogs at home for Sunday's game. I think they cover and win.

It's a good spot for New England, first off. Miami is coming off a high-energy win in Los Angeles, having to travel across the country to get back home before flying up North again for another game. It might not have a similar sense of urgency as New England because of that and due to the Patriots already being 0-1.

Both teams will move the ball a fair amount and set up scoring opportunities. But a lot drives will stall out, which is why I think the Patriots pull away with a 23-19 win.