The Indianapolis Colts are flying high with Daniel Jones in the captain’s chair. Ditto for the New England Patriots. But there’s simply too much love being shown. So, stop gawking at the records because the Patriots, Colts, and Broncos have fatal flaws.
It’s not a good idea to base an opinion mainly on a team’s record. Disregard Bill Parcells because he wasn’t 100% right when he said, “You are what your record says you are.” If that were true, then they could simply award the Super Bowl to the team that finishes with the best record.
Look at last year. The Lions had the best record and didn’t win a playoff game. The Vikings were right there with them and suffered the same fate.
But at least in those instances, it was a full season of work. It was clear that the Eagles, Chiefs, and Bills were heavily in the mix for reaching the Super Bowl. And they all had good records.
The problem comes from anointing teams near the halfway mark when they have serious questions about their playoff viability.
AFC has three questionable big dogs
The New England Patriots (8-2) have become the darlings of the AFC. There have been suggestions that the road to the Super Bowl runs through Foxborough.
It’s not that it doesn’t make sense. The Patriots are 8-2 and have the following remaining schedule: Jets, Bengals, Giants, Bills, Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins.
It’s not impossible to think they could get to 14-3. But it’s also possible they lose to the Bills and Ravens, and maybe they also fall victim to an upset.
The Patriots don’t have a grizzled veteran team with plenty of playoff experience. And the head coach hasn’t led a team to a playoff victory since 2019, according to Pro Football Reference. Mike Vrabel is 2-3 all-time in the playoffs in seven seasons as a head coach. And suddenly he’s going to guide a team to the promised land with a second-year quarterback and a questionable receiver room?
How about the Indianapolis Colts?
They’re also 8-2 and have a juggernaut offense. As long as they can hand the ball off to Jonathan Taylor, they’re in good shape, right?
But when Taylor has been slowed down, the Colts become vulnerable. That’s because they have a quarterback who has been shaky in games they’ve lost. Without Taylor running amok, Daniel Jones has struggled. In the two losses, he threw five of his seven interceptions on the season.
And what kind of playoff success can Jones bank on? He’s 1-1 in seven years in the NFL. And he’s going to get his team past one of the AFC standard bearers?
Plus, if the Colts make the playoffs, it will be Shane Steichen’s first game in the postseason as a head coach.
Where do the Denver Broncos stand?
They have a coach who knows how to win in the playoffs. He has a career record of 9-9 and a Super Bowl title in 2009. So, the Broncos could enter the postseason with confidence from that standpoint.
However, they have a second-year quarterback who was 13 of 22 for 144 yards in his playoff encounter last year. And this year, the jury is still out for Bo Nix. That’s especially true after his horrendous 150-yard performance against the lowly Raiders on Thursday night.
Plus, while Nix has proven to be impressive in the fourth quarter of some games, his slow starts are the kinds of things that get teams beaten in the playoffs.
Plus, the Broncos don’t have fear makers in the receiver room. It’s a problem that could haunt them in the postseason.
So one of those teams won’t make it?
It would be unreasonable at this point to say none of the Patriots, Colts, or Broncos will be the AFC representative in the Super Bowl.
But it is also unreasonable to rule out the four teams that have a better overall makeup of coach and quarterback.
The Chargers have Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert. They have a nice offensive balance, despite a weak offensive line, and Herbert has good weapons at his disposal.
The Chiefs have Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Yes, they have a very tough schedule down the stretch. But it doesn’t make sense to rule out these guys, even if they’ve been a little disappointing thus far.
As for the Bills, they have Sean McDermott and Josh Allen. Say what you want about them not winning the big one yet, but they have a 7-7 playoff record together. It hasn’t been like an utter failure.
And then there’s the Ravens with John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson. Count them out at your own peril. Yes, Jackson is 3-5 in the playoffs, but Harbaugh is 13-11 with a Super Bowl title.
The Ravens are No. 14 while the Bills have dropped to No. 12 in the NFL power rankings, according to USA Today. The Chargers stand at No. 11 with the Chiefs at No. 7.
Having the Colts at No. 1 seems way too lofty. It’s not completely unearned, but power rankings should reflect body or work AND potential moving forward, with everything taken into consideration. Otherwise, it’s just a repeat of the standings. The Patriots are No. 6 while the Broncos stand at No. 8.
Yes, perhaps this year signals a changing of the guard. And maybe one of the three newcomers rules the roost.
However, it just doesn’t feel like it’s time to count out the old guard with so much season left to play.
