Just two teams remain in the AFC this season, as the top two seeds in the conference will do battle in the AFC Championship Game with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. A pair of 14-win teams will compete for the title on Sunday when the No. 2 seed New England Patriots go on the road to play the top-seeded Denver Broncos.
The Pats and Broncos have both been near the top of the AFC all season long, so this matchup isn't necessarily surprising. However, things are looking a lot different coming into this game after Broncos quarterback Bo Nix suffered a fractured ankle late in Denver's Divisional Round win over the Buffalo Bills and will miss the remainder of the playoffs. Jarrett Stidham is the backup and will start on Sunday.
On the other side, the Patriots have won comfortably in their two playoff games despite a couple of inconsistent outings from their elite offense. Drake Maye has been putting the ball in harm's way, but the New England defense has really stepped up in double-digit home wins over the Chargers and Texans.
With Stidham in the lineup, many fans and pundits are already counting out the Broncos in this game. After all, the Patriots have feasted on backup quarterbacks whenever they have faced them this season. However, Denver still has what it takes to play with New England and get the job done to get to a Super Bowl.
Sean Payton excels with backup quarterbacks
It's going to be tough for Denver to move the ball against a Patriots defense that is playing its best football at the moment and is giving up next to nothing on the ground in these playoffs. Milton Williams is back in the middle alongside Christian Barmore, and the New England front is very formidable as a result.
The downgrade, even if isn't a massive chasm, from Nix to Stidham is giving a lot of people pause coming into this game, but Sean Payton has always excelled as a head coach when his backups are forced to play. Teddy Bridgewater famously led the Saints to a 5-0 record during the 2019 season when Drew Brees was sidelined with an injury, and both Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston had winning records in relief as well during their time in New Orleans under Payton.
While Stidham doesn't have a ton of NFL experience, he is still a very talented passer that can replicate a lot of what Nix can do with his arm. However, the Broncos will lose Nix's scrambling ability and knack for making plays outside of the pocket, which has been a big part of their offense this season.
One thing that Payton has always done very well during his career as a head coach is target the tight ends. Going all the way back to his days with Jimmy Graham in New Orleans, that has always been a strength of Payton's offenses. While the Broncos don't have a dominant force at that position, Evan Engram and Adam Trautman are still quality players.
Targeting tight ends has been a strength of this Broncos team so far this season, as Denver finished seventh in the NFL in EPA per dropback on those plays according to Next Gen Stats. It wasn't a staple of this Denver offense, but it could be something that the Broncos tap into against this New England defense specifically.
The Patriots have one of the best cornerback duos in all of football in Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, and they have been suffocating the outside receivers on their schedule when they have both been healthy this season. However, the Patriots have struggled a little bit against tight end targets in 2025, ranking 24th in the NFL in EPA per dropback allowed on those plays. Linebackers Robert Spillane and Christian Elliss are good against the run but struggle in coverage at times, which could be something the Broncos can exploit.
Denver's pass rush can dominate the other side of the ball
While the Broncos can still find enough answers to put up some points with Stidham in at quarterback, the Denver defense is going to be what has to carry the day and get the Broncos over the hump in this game. If the Patriots can get this game into the 20s or low 30s, Denver feels like it has little chance to advance.
The Broncos have lived off of their pass rush for a lot of this season, and they should be able to do so again in this game. The regular season numbers were historic: a 40.7% pressure rate and a league-high 68 sacks. Denver's pressure rate was down a bit in its win over the Bills, but the Broncos still got three sacks of Josh Allen and forced the star quarterback into four costly turnovers.
Drake Maye might be the NFL MVP this season, but he is still prone to taking sacks and putting the ball on the ground, and this Patriots offensive line has taken its lumps over the last two weeks. He has been sacked 10 times in the last two games, so there should be chances for the Broncos to get home.
The matchup to watch will be whoever ends up matched up with rookie left tackle Will Campbell, whether it be Nik Bonitto or Jonathan Cooper. The top-five pick has had a solid rookie season, but some of his pre-draft concerns have come up against elite pass rushers. Campbell doesn't have the prototypical frame of a franchise left tackle, and some of the more physically talented defensive ends have given him trouble.
That was on full display in the Divisional Round, when Will Anderson Jr. dominated Campbell on his way to three sacks and two forced fumbles.
Bonitto is one of the quickest pass rushers off the ball in the entire NFL, and he has the type of bendy athleticism that makes it very hard for linemen to get into his frame. For the Broncos to win on Sunday without Nix on the field, Bonitto will have to make a massive impact, and this is a matchup where he can do just that.
