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The Pittsburgh Steelers are facing a precarious situation regarding their future at quarterback, and how they handle this situation may determine if they will have a legitimate championship window within the next three to five years.
The quarterback position is the most important position in all of sports, and having a franchise quarterback can make up for many shortcomings and elevate a team to perennial Super Bowl contender status, while teams without a franchise QB face an uphill battle regardless of what other moves they make.
Kenny Pickett’s injury demonstrates why Matt Canada had to go earlier
Pickett’s injury validates everybody who argued that Matt Canada needed to be fired earlier in the season. In the Steelers' first game without Canada, Pickett had arguably the best game of his career in which the Steelers put up 400 yards for the first time since 2020. Pickett contributed significantly, throwing for 278 yards. While he didn't toss any touchdown passes, he moved the ball efficiently, and if Diontae Johnson hadn’t dropped a pass in the end zone, he would have crossed the 300-yard passing mark and added a touchdown to his stat line.
Canada’s offense struggled with multiple quarterbacks under center, including future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben’s struggles with Canada, coupled with his ability to show he could still play when he went off-script late in games, demonstrated that Canada was holding the offense back.
However, the 2023 offense features almost all new faces and Kenny Pickett certainly isn’t Ben Roethlisberger. So, it’s difficult to tell if Canada was holding Pickett back, or if this is just who Pickett is.
Unfortunately, while the first game without Canada gave Steelers fans hope that Pickett could turn things around, the offense quickly fell apart as the Steelers looked closer to their usual selves in the next game. Pickett then got injured right before halftime, and the team has barely shown flashes since he went down with the injury.
Now, the season is wrapping up and the Steelers still don’t know what they really have at the quarterback position. To make matters worse, this offseason features a number of intriguing quarterback prospects and trade targets.
The 2024 quarterback class could be generational
For any NFL team in the market for a quarterback, 2024 is the perfect year. The quarterback class in the 2024 draft is going to be one of the deepest in recent memory. It has everything: elite talent at the top and significant depth. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are the two best and most well-known prospects, but Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix each offer star potential in their own ways. The draft could get even deeper if Shedeur Sanders opts to go to the NFL instead of returning for another season at Colorado.
On the trade market, Bears quarterback Justin Fields could be moved this winter. Fields has flashed potential and Chicago has certainly put him in an unenviable spot. While Fields has been inconsistent, he has also shown more flashes than Pickett. Fields has easy plus arm strength and is also arguably the best running quarterback not named Lamar Jackson.
Pickett’s Steelers career has been a mixed bag
To say Pickett’s career in the Steel City has been a roller coaster would be a serious understatement. Pickett has shown some limited flashes of his potential, but that’s all they have been: flashes. The numbers are bleak, and there’s no way around that. While numbers don’t tell the whole story, they do tell us something and can’t be denied.
Pickett has only thrown 13 career touchdown passes in 25 games played, and he has also thrown 13 interceptions. To put it bluntly, those numbers are not good. He is only averaging 179 passing yards per game.
To be fair, there are some numbers that can be interpreted positively. Pickett has performed admirably in crunch time, and the team has a remarkable record in one-score games. However, any team that consistently relies on winning one-score games is bound to regress sooner or later, in addition to being vulnerable to random variance and bad luck.
Steelers need to know if Pickett is their guy going forward
With a deep and talented quarterback class coming out of college and intriguing options available on the trade market, the Steelers have to make a decision if they are all in on Pickett or not. Unfortunately, the only honest grade Pickett can be given at this point is incomplete. He hasn’t quite failed yet, but he certainly hasn’t passed, either.
This situation could have been easily avoided if the Steelers had parted ways with Matt Canada earlier. Anybody with an understanding of the game could tell that Canada was the problem, at least in part. What couldn’t be answered was whether Pickett was simply being held back by the problem, or if Pickett himself was a big part of the problem.
Now, the front office may not have time to find out and will have to rely on only partial information to make one of the most important decisions the Steelers have had to make in the past 20 years.
Pickett may return early
There are rumors circulating that Pickett will attempt to make his return in Week 16 (Mason Rudolph is currently in line to start), though it's looking like Week 17 is a more likely option. Pickett’s return would be extremely important for Pittsburgh’s future outlook because it would give the front office at least a few more games to determine whether they believe Pickett can be the franchise guy going forward, or not.
The Steelers need to hope Pickett is able to return so they can have as much information as possible to evaluate what they have at the quarterback position as they decide how to move forward. The future of the Steelers depends on making the right decision.
