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The recent weeks haven't been the most ideal for the Pittsburgh Steelers. On a four-game skid, Mike Tomlin's squad finished off the regular season with a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last Saturday. That gives them a 10-7 record and a sixth-seed finish ahead of the playoffs, meaning they'll face none other than their AFC North rivals, the Baltimore Ravens.
There's going to be no sugarcoating here. Many analysts and fans favor the Ravens in the Wild Card round. For one, Lamar Jackson is having the best season of his career. Secondly, Baltimore is on a roll, blowing out their last four opponents and scoring no less than 30 points each game. The Steelers were on the receiving end of one of these blowouts, as the Ravens took home a 34-17 victory back in December.
Nevertheless, all hope isn't lost yet. The Steelers didn't make the playoffs for no reason. They're one of the league's best defensive teams especially against the run, limiting foes to just 98.7 rushing yards per game (6th overall). Against aerial attacks, the Steelers hold the third-best pass rush win rate in the NFL, and interestingly, half of Lamar Jackson's interceptions this season have transpired against a Pittsburgh defense that's already forced a total of 17 interceptions (stats via ESPN). Oh, and not to forget, the Steelers bested the Ravens during their first meeting this year, and it was largely due to Pittsburgh limiting Derrick Henry to one of his worst games, in addition to the constant pressures on Jackson up front.
This is exactly why the X-Factor doesn't come from the Pittsburgh defense. People already know what T.J. Watt and Co. are capable of. They already know that disrupting offenses is the Steelers' main gateway to victories and that the team will lean heavily on Teryl Austin's unit again this weekend. That being said, what might determine the outcome is how Arthur Smith's side of the team performs. This is where the X-Factor comes in — a noteworthy piece of the puzzle who steps up and becomes that difference maker for the Steelers. And no, it's not a quarterback or a receiver…it's running back Najee Harris.
It could all come down to how Najee Harris performs
See, the Steelers currently have 533 total carries this season. That's the fourth most in the entire league, meaning they love to utilize their runners on the ground. However, a concerning stat is how they're the eighth-worst team in average yards per carry (4.1). They're also outside the top 10 teams in average rushing yards per game (127.4), raising questions about their efficiency on the ground.
Of course, a concern like this isn't just attributed to one person, but it's only natural that the team's best running back comes to mind. For the fourth season in a row, Najee Harris has reached the 1,000-yard mark. However, he hasn't had a 100-yard game since late October. Through the Steelers' last nine games, Harris' highest output was 75 rushing yards, which came against the Bengals more than a month ago.
On the bright side, Pittsburgh usually wins when Harris has a big outing in terms of yardage. Take a look at his three 100-yard games this season; The Steelers emerged victorious in all of them. And since this discussion also centers around the Ravens, Harris has tallied two 100-yard games against Baltimore in his career, with the Steelers emerging victorious in both.
High yardage doesn't always equate to points, obviously. But if a running back can continuously move the chains and advance the ball downfield, that gives a team more opportunities for touchdowns. Whether or not they are able to convert, it's still better than being stuck far out and having to settle for punts and long field goal attempts. The more chances Pittsburgh gets near the endzone, the higher the probability of pulling off that upset.
All in all, grade-A performances are needed from both the Steelers' defense and offense, and the latter can only be accomplished if Najee Harris is on top of his game.
