Week 5 provided some shocks, and the San Francisco 49ers' defeat of the Los Angeles Rams was among them. Now, they will head to Central Florida to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This 49ers-Buccaneers matchup should provide a number of interesting showdowns. However, there is one head-to-head showdown that could be the 49ers' biggest matchup to exploit.
Tampa Bay is the current favorite, with oddsmakers giving them three points over San Francisco this weekend, according to FanDuel. However, anything could happen in a battle between two 4-1 teams.
The game at Raymond James Stadium could be a nailbiter that goes to the wire. But what do the Niners need to do to win? Here is where the teams are, and what is the 49ers' biggest matchup to exploit.
The Buccaneers' injuries on the offensive line
Tristan Wirfs recently returned to the lineup after dealing with an injury that kept him sidelined early. Overall, it was a welcome return for an offensive line that has had injury issues. Luke Goedeke is already out after sustaining a knee injury. Unfortunately, it did not stop there for the Bucs.
Cody Mauch suffered a season-ending injury, and that has thrown the entire offensive line into chaos. Even with all these injuries, the Bucs have managed to have an explosive offense. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been instrumental in ensuring the offense continues to thrive. So far, he has passed for 1,283 yards, 10 touchdowns, and just one interception. Running back Bucky Irving has struggled behind this line, running 71 times for 237 yards while averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Therefore, the Bucs have had to improvise, and did so by giving Irving chances through the air.
The offensive line has forced Mayfield to get rid of the football much quicker. Because of Mayfield's ability to evade the defense, he has only endured nine sacks despite a patchwork offensive line.
The 49ers' rotation on defense
The 49ers lost Nick Bosa for the season, effectively costing them their best pass rusher for the season. When that happened, it put a major strain on a young defense that lacked the ability to get to the quarterback without him.
The first signs of trouble started against the Jacksonville Jaguars, as the defense struggled to garner any pressure on Trevor Lawrence. Ultimately, it was not much better against the Rams, as they only sacked Matthew Stafford once and allowed him to pass for 389 yards. Bryce Huff had the one sack, and most expect him to become the de facto leader of the pass rushers with Bosa out. Coach Robert Saleh could utilize him on passing downs. Likewise, Yetur Gross-Matos could see more snaps as the main pass rusher with Bosa out.
CJ West and Jordan Jefferson are also candidates to be the top pass rusher, especially when trying to replicate the work that Bosa did. When the Niners meet the Bucs this Sunday, they need to prevent Mayfield from destroying them. Significantly, the best way to do that is to disrupt his passing. The 49ers' biggest matchup to exploit will come in the trenches, and whether they can slow down the explosive Tampa offense.
The 49ers' biggest matchup to exploit
As referenced, it will all come down to the offensive line for Tampa Bay against the San Francisco defensive line. Specifically, the matchup to watch is the showdown between Charlie Heck and Gross-Matos.
Both of these players started the season as backups. Then, the starters in front of them got hurt. When the season began, this likely would have been a head-to-head showdown between Mauch and Bosa. Ironically, both are out, and their backups will match up. It has not been smooth sailing for Heck, as he has struggled, allowing 18 quarterback pressures in three games. Heck's run blocking has been abysmal, and he has forced Mayfield into scrambling or improvising often.
Heck has not been able to adjust to cross-fade movements. Because of this, it has put him at a disadvantage against speed or power pass rushers. If there is a matchup to exploit, it's the showdown against Heck. Gross-Matos could match up with Heck for most situations. Then, in obvious passing downs, Huff could come in and disrupt things on Heck's side to fluster Mayfield into making a throw sooner than he wants.
The Bucs and Mayfield, specifically, have done a good job of covering up Heck's mistakes. However, he will face a defense that can still make plays when they need to, as evidenced by the win over the Rams. Saleh can cook up schemes to exploit Heck and find ways for his defense to disrupt the offensive flow of the game. If the Niners take advantage of Heck's shortcomings, they could flip field position while also slowing down Mayfield. This will give them a better chance to beat the Bucs.
