The Toronto Maple Leafs head to Central Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Lightning in a potential first-round playoff preview. It's time to continue our NHL odds series with a Maple Leafs-Lightning prediction and pick.

 

The Maple Leafs steamrolled the Philadelphia Flyers 6-3 on Saturday night. With the game scoreless in the second period, Kevin Hayes notched a goal to give the Flyers the 1-0 lead.

However, Wayne Simmonds tied it up halfway through the period. Consequently, Timothy Liljegren put the Leafs up 2-1 before Ivan Provorov tied it for the Flyers.

In the third period, Toronto went up for good after a goal by Auston Matthews, his league-leading 51st of the season. Additionally, goalie Jack Campbell returned from injury to help guide the Leafs to victory with 29 saves. Toronto is 44-19-5 and tied with Tampa Bay for second place in the Atlantic Division.

The Lightning lost 5-4 in a shootout at home to the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday night. The Lightning jumped out early, building 2-0 and a 3-1 leads.

However, Montreal battled back to tie it at 3-3. Brayden Point put the Lightning back up with a power-play goal to make it 4-3 Tampa Bay at the end of the second period. Ultimately, the Canadiens fought back, tying it again, this time on a goal by Jesse Ylonen.

Neither team scored in the extra period, which meant they needed to play a shootout. The Canadiens won the shootout 1-0 when Nick Suzuki converted a shot past goalie Brian Elliot to seal the deal. The Lightning are 43-18-7 and tied with the Maple Leafs for second place in the Atlantic Division.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Maple Leafs-Lightning odds.

NHL Odds: Maple Leafs-Lightning Odds

Maple Leafs: +1.5 (-230)

Lightning: -1.5 (+188)

Over: 6.5 (-105)

Under: 6.5 (-115)

*Watch NHL Games LIVE with fuboTV (click for free trial)*

Why The Maple Leafs Could Cover The Spread

Toronto is firing on all cylinders. The Leafs have won four in a row and gone 7-3 over 10 games. Now, they face a team they might face in the first round. Additionally, the Leafs own a victory over the Lightning this season, winning 2-1 earlier in the season. Thus, the low-scoring affair is one the Leafs might need to play to cover.

However, the Leafs have scored at will recently, scoring five or more goals in four straight games. Now, they will face an exceptional goalie and must find a way to get the puck past Andrei Vasilevskiy. To do that, Toronto needs Matthews to shine. The Rocket Richard candidate has 87 points through 62 games this season. Additionally, he is on a 12-game point streak. The Leafs have gone 8-3-1 in those 12 games.

In addition to Matthews, the Leafs have goalie Jack Campbell back. Campbell is 25-9-4 on the season with a 2.66 goals-against average and a .914 save percentage. Moreover, he saved 24 shots in a 2-1 win earlier in the season. The Leafs need their offense to spark on the power play and for Campbell to repeat a thrilling performance from earlier in the year.

Toronto will cover the spread if Matthews gets going offensively, there's good goaltending from Campbell, and the power play thrives. Those three components will factor into whether they go into Tampa and pull off the win. Overall, the Leafs can do this. Now, they must execute.

Why The Lightning Could Cover The Spread

Tampa Bay is one of the most talented teams in the league. Additionally, they are the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions. Steven Stamkos leads the Lightning in goals with 32. Likewise, defenseman Victor Hedman has distributed well with 47 assists. In addition to them, Nikita Kucherov has produced 43 points in 33 games. Of course, Vasilevskiy has been the rock in the net, stopping most shots.

He is 35-14-4 this season with a 2.37 goals-against average and a .917 save percentage. In his career against Toronto, he is 12-7-2 with a 2.40 goals-against average and a .923 save percentage. Vasilevskiy and the Lightning defenders must step in front of Matthews, Mitch Marner, and the rest of the Maple Leafs' explosive attack. Hence, they cannot allow opportunities and definitely must not take penalties.

Also, the Lightning must win the gritty battle. In their win over the Leafs, Tampa Bay outhit Toronto 44-25. One of the best ways to beat the Leafs is to hit them and force them off their game.

Thus, the Lightning will cover the spread if their All-Stars produce. Additionally, Tampa Bay must limit penalties, block shots, and win the hits battle. This is a game with plenty on the line and the first of two matches in Tampa over the next two weeks.

Final Maple Leafs-Lightning Prediction & Pick

This game will have a playoff feel to it. Toronto and Tampa Bay might see each other in the first round, and home ice might play a pivotal role. Toronto is 19-12-3 away from home this year. Conversely, the Lightning are 21-6-5 at Amelie Arena. However, the Lightning are 9-5-3 at home against teams currently in a playoff spot. This is the toughest game of the day to decide. However, the Leafs have won two in a row in Tampa. Due to this, the bet is on the Leafs to cover the spread.

Final Maple Leafs-Lightning Prediction & Pick: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-230)