The Colorado Avalanche continue their quest to repeat as Stanley Cup Champions as they play host to the Pittsburgh Penguins. It’s time to continue our NHL odds series with a Penguins-Avalanche prediction and pick.
Pittsburgh comes into the game one point behind the Florida Panthers in the Wild Card standings, but with a game in hand on them, this is an opportunity to jump into playoff position. The Penguins have lost four straight though and managed just seven goals in those four games. The Avalanche just shut out the Blackhawks at home en route to their sixth straight win. Colorado is surging in the standings and has a chance to claim the top spot in the Central Division. Pittsburgh will try to slow down an Avalanche team that has been dominant recently.
Here are the Penguins-Avalanche NHL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NHL Odds: Penguins-Avalanche Odds
Pittsburgh Penguins: +1.5 (-192)
Colorado Avalanche: -1.5 (+158)
Over: 6.5 (-104)
Under: 6.5 (-115)
How To Watch Penguins vs. Avalanche
TV: TNT
Stream: NHLPP
Time: 8:00 PM ET/ 5:00 PM PT
*Watch NHL games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Penguins Could Cover The Spread
The Penguins have ranked 16th on the season at 3.19 goals per game, but that offense has slowed to a haul in the last four games. They have been shut out by the Rangers and averaged 1.75 goals per game in that time frame. The team’s leading goal scorer is still firing away. Jake Guentzel scored twice in the 6-4 loss to Montreal and has another goal in the 4-2 loss in the first Rangers game. He got five shots on goal in their most recent game, a 2-1 loss to Ottawa. Outside of Guentzel, the top scorers have struggled. The combination of Crosby, Malkin, and Zucker have just two goals combined in their last five games.
Goaltending, which has been middle of the NHL this year, has been bad in this losing spell. Tristan Jarry has lost his last four starts. He has had a save percentage of .835 in that time and has had to be pulled from the game twice. How Jarry goes has often been how the Penguins have gone. In wins this year, he has a .935 save percentage and gives up just over two goals per outing. In losses this year he has a .873 save percentage and gives up 4.26 goals per outing. The Penguins are 6-1 recently when giving up two or fewer goals, and 6-2 when giving up three or fewer.
The Penguins have done a good job making sure the other offense does not get off shots, holding the opposing team under 25 shots in three of their four losses. They have also only given up one power-play goal in the four games as well while scoring two. Therefore, the defense has not been the issue, it is simply making more effective shots and getting better goaltending. The goaltending has shown it can be good at times this year, and if they defense keeps up their play, they should turn around shortly.
Why The Avalanche Could Cover The Spread
Colorado has the star trio of Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, and Nathan MacKinnon. The trio is healthy and starting to put together the production they had when they won the cup a year ago. MacKinnon is the epitome of coming into form right now. He has points in 19 of 20 games, including all but one game in march. So if a prop bet is being searched for, MacKinnon over .5 points should be attractive. In March, MacKinnon has eight goals and ten assists, while averaging 4.82 shots on goal in that time span.
The Avalanche is also loaded with plus/minus leaders, with seven of their players appearing in the top 100. This mark is tied for fourth in the NHL. They are playing well on both sides of the ice right now. Alexandar Georgiev has won six of his last nine starts, only giving up 2.32 goals per game, and having two shutouts. He is currently ranked fourth in the NHL in save percentage on the year and could be up for the Venza trophy at the end of the year. The Penguins have been good at getting shots on the cage recently, but they have not created high-risk-scoring opportunities. With easier saves, Georgiev should feast once again.
Final Penguins-Avalanche Prediction & Pick
Tonight is a story of two teams going in different directions. Pittsburgh may not have the goaltending to stop Rantanen, Maker, and MacKinnon. Their hope is to slow down their shot output and get a few goals of their own tonight. They have done at keeping shot totals down, but the Avalanche have been putting them up in bunches. If the Avalanche keep up what they have been doing, there will be no letdown tonight.
Final Penguins-Avalanche Prediction & Pick: Avalanche -1.5 (+158)
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