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It's finally time for the Main Event of this highly anticipated Noche UFC card in celebration of Mexican Independence Day as we see two women square off for the UFC's Flyweight Title. Mexican Champion Alexa Grasso will face off against former champion Valentina Shevchenko for a rematch of their previous title fight. You won't want to miss this memorable bout! Check out our UFC odds series for our Grasso-Shevchenko II prediction and pick.
Alexa Grasso (16-3) comes into this fight with a 8-3 UFC record since 2016. She became the newly-crowned Strawweight Champion after knocking Valentina Shevchenko off her lengthy title defense. Against all odds, she became the first female Mexican UFC Champion and will defend her strap for the first time. With a win, Grasso could cement her run as the new champion and dispel any talk of her last win being a fluke. The Champion stands 5'5″ with a 66-inch reach.
Valentina Shevchenko (23-4) has gone 12-3 during her illustrious UFC career en route to becoming one of the promotion's greatest fighters. She defended her Flyweight title seven times and is clearly regarded as the best female fighter of all time behind Amanda Nunes. Her loss was a shock to her system, but Shevchenko is back and focused as ever to take back what she believes to be hers. Shevchenko stands 5'5″ with a 67-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Noche UFC Odds: Alexa Grasso-Valentina Shevchenko Odds
Alexa Grasso: +142
Valentina Shevchenko: -176
Over 4.5 rounds: -154
Under 4.5 rounds: +120
How to Watch Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN App, UFC Fight Pass
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
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Why Alexa Grasso Will Win
Alexa Grasso did what no one thought would be possible for the remainder of Valentina Shevchenko's career and that was take the belt right off of her waist. During her title challenge, Alexa Grasso was having a tough time against the champion, but managed to keep it a competitive fight. She didn't back down from Valentina in the striking and did all she could to get up off her back when taken down. She capitalized in the most opportunistic way by taking Shevchenko's back on a missed spinning kick. Grasso immediately showed off her aggressive grappling and didn't let up until she found Shevchenko's neck. Her pure grit and determination got her the win after she found the smallest opening in what seemed to be an impenetrable armor.
She'll have a massive advantage in terms of momentum and the crowd love in this one. It's the biggest spot of her career and it'll be interesting to see how she handles defending the belt as a champion for the first time. Many fighters talk about the drastic confidence boost that comes with being champion, so it should add to what is already the prime of Grasso's career. She's a very skilled grappler and will once again look to hold her own on the ground. If she meets Shevchenko in the middle of the octagon with pressure and high-volume striking, she could have a chance to overwhelm the former champ. Grasso should be getting the loudest pop of the night when she walks out, so look for all of that energy to carry into her performance.
Why Valentina Shevchenko Will Win
Valentina Shevchenko was winning most of the previous title fight between these two. She has every ability to control range with the striking, but she didn't seem to react too well to the jab of Grasso in the first meeting. Valentina won't have much time to sit around and feel Grasso out, so she should look to immediately fight like her old self and attack with controlled chaos. When she's landing her strikes, it's a beautiful symphony of violence that breaks even the toughest opponents. With the way she shockingly lost the last fight, expect Shevchenko to be all the more focused in this one.
Many experts point to the fact that Shevchenko's most recent title defenses leading up to her loss didn't look quite as dominant. While this may be true, she's already 35 years old and has clearly had to adapt her fighting style throughout her career. During the press conferences leading up to fight night, Shevchenko looked extremely focused and had a tunnel-vision mindset for gaining the title back. She's clearly on a mission and all signs are pointing towards a vintage “Bullet” Valentina performance.
Final Alexa Grasso-Valentina Shevchenko Prediction & Pick
This fight is going to be a great display of mixed martial arts and the betting odds indicate that we should have a close scrap on our hands. Grasso is extremely confident after gaining the title and the momentum behind her will be massive. However, it'll be interesting to see how she handles the moment in her first experience as defending champion.
Valentina Shevchenko has been stone-cold all fight week and all signs are pointing towards her getting back to what made her champion in the first place. I think a lot of people will be surprised by how close this betting line was in the end. For the prediction, let's go with Valentina Shevchenko to regain her belt and finish this fight. Until I see her lose twice, there's nothing indicating that Shevchenko has really fallen off.
Final Alexa Grasso-Valentina Shevchenko Prediction & Pick: Valentina Shevchenko (-176); UNDER 4.5 Rounds (+120)
