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The San Diego Padres (35-36) visit the San Francisco Giants (39-32) for the first of a four-game series. First pitch commences Monday at 9:45 p.m. ET. San Diego owns a 2-0 advantage in the season series thanks to their wins in Mexico City earlier this year. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Giants prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Padres-Giants MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Giants Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+138)
San Francisco Giants: +1.5 (-166)
Over: 8.5 (-120)
Under: 8.5 (-102)
How To Watch Padres vs. Giants
TV: Bally Sports, NBCS Bay Area
Stream: MLB.tv
Time: 9:45 p.m. ET/ 6:45 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Padres-Giants LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 7-3 (Fourth in the NL West)
Run Line Record: 35-36 (49%)
Over Record: 24-44-3 (35%)
The Padres may finally be heating up after going 25-28 through the first two months of the year. They've gone 10-6 this month – averaging 4.8 runs per game in the process. They haven't lost a series since the end of May and are coming off a massive series win against the Rays. Still, the Padres sit a game under .500 despite their recent stretch. Thus, they'll need their offense to keep clicking and Michael Wacha to give them another strong start if they want to cover as road favorites tonight.
Righty Michael Wacha (7-2) makes his 14th start of the season for the Padres tonight. The 31-year-old is a former top prospect who has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career but has struggled with consistency. He's been firing on all cylinders this season, however, with a stellar 2.89 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Wacha has done a great job limiting hard contact this season – sitting in the 83rd percentile in Hard Hit rate and the 77th in Average Exit Velocity. He's been excellent at limiting walks with a 7% BB rate.
While Wacha doesn't strike many batters out, his 23.2% strikeout rate is his highest since 2020. Wacha had a shaky start to the season but has been lights-out over his last eight starts – going 5-1 with a 0.91 ERA in 49.1 innings. Considering he hasn't allowed more than two runs since April, Wacha should be in line for another strong outing tonight.
Easily the biggest catalyst in San Diego's success this month has been Fernando Tatis. Tatis has been on an absolute tear this month – batting .400 while blasting five home runs and collecting 49 total bases. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts have quietly been heating up right there with Tatis. Machado holds a .295 average and 29 total bases this month while Bogaerts holds a .302 average and 18 bases in just 12 games. The X-factor for San Diego is Juan Soto. Soto looked to be breaking out after hitting .333 in May but has since regressed with a .214 average this month. Still, Soto is one of the best hitters in baseball and it's only a matter of time before he heats up again.
Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 8-2 (Second in the NL West)
Run Line Record: 37-34 (52%)
Over Record: 34-35-2 (49%)
The Giants may be the single-hottest team in baseball with seven straight wins and an 11-4 record in June. The Giants started the season slowly but have gone 28-16 since May 1st. Although they dropped both games against the Padres in Mexico City at the end of April, both teams look dramatically different now. Between the recent hot stretch from LaMonte Wade and the promotion of top prospect Luis Matos, San Francisco is well-equipped to cover as a home underdog provided their pitching can keep them in the game.
Righty Ryan Walker (2-0) makes his first career start for the Giants tonight. Walker has been dominant as a reliever this season – allowing just two earned runs over 14.2 innings. He's been a strong strikeout pitcher with 15 Ks thus far while only walking two batters. That said, he has yet to throw more than 51 pitches in any appearance this season and thus will likely serve as an opener rather than a full-fledged starter.
Sean Manaea will likely see a chunk of the innings tonight once Walker is through. He's bounced in and out of the Giants' rotation this season – going 2-3 across 15 appearances (six starts). He was shelled in his most repenting outing – allowing four runs in just 3.2 innings against the Dodgers. Additionally, Manaea has already seen this Padres lineup earlier in the year. Although he allowed four runs in just two innings, it was in Mexico City – a venue notorious for high-scoring affairs.
Final Padres-Giants Prediction & Pick
In a matchup between two of the hottest teams in baseball, I can't pass up on taking the home underdogs.
Final Padres-Giants Prediction & Pick: San Francisco Giants +1.5 (-166)
