The Padres make the trip to Cleveland to face the Guardians! These two teams have been playing differently. The Guardians are playing great baseball and then the Padres have been inconsistent. However, neither team is playing well entering this matchup. Our MLB odds series has our Padres-Guardians prediction, odds, and pick for Saturday.
Padres-Guardians Projected Starters
Dylan Cease vs. Gavin Williams
Dylan Cease (8-8) with a 3.99 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched six innings and gave up zero runs on one hit with three walks and 11 strikeouts in a Padres win.
2024 Road Splits: (4-3) 4.72
Gavin Williams (0-1) with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched five innings and gave up two runs on three hits with three walks and two strikeouts in a Guardians win.
2024 Home Splits: (0-1) 11.25 ERA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Guardians Odds
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+158)
Moneyline: -102
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-194)
Moneyline: -116
Over: 7.5 (-124)
Under: 7.5 (+102)
How to Watch Padres vs. Guardians
Time: 7:10 pm ET
TV: Bally Sports Great Lakes, MLB.TV
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres have been inconsistent but have an overall winning record of 50-49 this season. They have lost six out of their last seven games leading into this matchup. The key has been their offense this season where they are second in the league. In comparison, their pitching is in the bottom half of the MLB. Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth have been the biggest keys behind the plate, and why the Padres have surprised a bit as a team. Their pitching needs help with only Michael King and Yu Darvish playing well so far up to this point in the season.
The Padres are starting Dylan Cease on the mound. He has an 8-8 record, a 3.99 ERA, and a 1.08 WHIP. Through 115 innings, he has allowed 54 runs on 88 hits with 36 walks and 149 strikeouts. He has started in 20 games so far this season and the Padres have gone 11-9 in those games. Cease has been inconsistent on the mound for the Padres this year, but he has more good games than bad this year. The Guardians have not been that impressive behind the plate, making this an interesting matchup in Cleveland.
The Padres' offense has been great this year. They are second in team batting average at .261 after finishing with a .244 average last season. The offense is highlighted mainly by Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. in most of the batting categories. Profar leads the way in batting average at .305, is tied with Tatis Jr. in home runs at 14, and leads in RBI at 59, in OBP at .394, and finally in total hits at 103. Their offense can compete with any team in the MLB. This is an interesting matchup against Williams for the Padres because Williams has been solid in a more limited capacity for the Guardians.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians have had a great season with a 58-37 heading into this series. Their bats are average this year, while their pitching has been a top-10 staff all year. Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Tyler Freeman, and Josh Naylor have carried the Guardians on offense. Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively have held down the fort in the pitching staff despite Shane Bieber getting Tommy John Surgery. They have been one of the best teams in the MLB this season, not just in the AL.
The Guardians are starting Gavin Williams on the mound. He has a 0-1 record, a 3.77 ERA, and a 1.40 WHIP. Williams allowed seven runs on 14 hits with six walks and nine strikeouts through 14.1 innings. In his three starts, the Guardians were 1-2 in those games. Williams has been solid in a limited capacity for the Guardians this year after missing time due to an injury. He gets a difficult matchup against the Padres and their red-hot offense behind the plate.
The Guardians are a talented team behind the plate but have been average this year. They are 16th in team batting average at .243 after finishing last season at .259. The offense is led by Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan in almost every batting category. Kwan leads in batting average at .352 and in OBP at .407. Then, Ramirez leads in home runs at 23, in RBI at 77, and in total hits at 100. This offense has talent and has shown flashes, and they get an interesting matchup against Dylan Cease where he has been solid in his own right.
Final Padres-Guardians Prediction & Pick
The Guardians are the better team entering this matchup against San Diego. The difference in pitching is marginal between Dylan Cease and Gavin Williams, despite Cease having more experience this season. The Padres have a much better offense when compared to the Guardians. Since this should be a pitching duel, expect the Guardians to keep this close at home and cover and potentially win.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Padres-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Guardians +1.5 (-194)
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