Not a lot has gone right for the Padres in this series. In the first game, Yu Darvish was a late scratch due to illness, and the Padres lost. In game two, they were defeated again. Blake Snell has his first slip-up in nearly a month in the first inning. After giving up a single with two outs, Carlos Santana drove a ball to deep left-center to give the Pirates a 2-0 lead early. Snell settled down though, as he would only give up one more hit for the rest of his evening while striking out ten. The Pirates would feast on the first man out of the bullpen though. Nick Martinez came out of the bullpen for the Pirates in the seventh and promptly gave up five runs without recording an out.
For the Pirates, it was Henry Davis and Connor Joe that drove in two runs each, along with the Santana home run. The Pirates got quality pitching again as well. Mitch Keller went six innings giving up just four hits, with five strikeouts. He gave up just one run as well off a Xander Bogaerts single that socred Fernando Tatis Jr. Now the Pirates, who have won just three games in their previous 19, will be looking to win three in a row for the sweep of the Padres.
Here are the Padres-Pirates MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Pirates Odds
San Diego Pirates: -1.5 (-111)
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-108)
Over: 8.5 (-118)
Under: 8.5 (-104)
How To Watch Padres vs. Pirates
Time: 12:35 PM ET/ 9:35 AM PT
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Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
The Padres have lost four straight, and seven of their last nine. They have scored just eight runs in their last four games, and that result is tensions are high in the Padres clubhouse. The Padres are now 7.5 games back of the Dodgers for the last wild card spot, and 10.5 games back in the division. When the offense is on, it's solid, but when it's not, it's dreadful. The last ten games show this. They have won three games in the last ten and scored 28 runs in those three games. They have lost seven games and scored 17 runs in total. This trend has been going on all year. In wins, the Padres are hitting .285 and averaging 6.65 runs per game. In losses, they are hitting .186 and averaging 2.19 runs per game.
It was Xander Bogaerts with the lone RBI last night, and he has been frustrated with the team's lack of production. Recently he called out the team after their recent offensive embarrassments. Bogaerts may need to look in the mirror though. Last night was just his eighth RBI of the month, while he is hitting just .263. Juan Soto has been struggling as well. He does not have a hite in the series so far and has gone 0-6 with two walks. Still, he is hitting .276 this month with 15 RBIs and 13 runs scored.
The hottest bat on the team may belong to Ha-Seong Kim. Kim has driven in ten runs this month while hitting .277. He also has three home runs in the month. All three of those home runs and seven of the ten RBIs have come in his last six games. Fernando Tatis Jr. has also been hitting well. He is currently hitting .340 for the month with 17 RBIs and six home runs. The most impressive part is he has been patient at the plate. Tatis has walked 13 times bringing his OBP to .426 for the month.
The Padres will be sending Joe Musgrove out to end their slide. Musgrove has been solid this year. He is 6-2 with a 3.88 ERA. He has also been amazing in June. So far this month he has pitched in five games. He has gone 30 innings, giving up just eight runs, seven of them earned. Musgrove is 4-0 on the month with a 2.10 ERA. He only has one game this month he has given up more than two runs, while he has given up one or fewer in three.
Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
Last night the Pirates scored seven more runs, which gives them 16 in the last two games. They had only scored 15 runs in the nine games before this series combined. This season the Pirates are 25th in the majors in runs while sitting 19th in batting average, 18th in on-base percentage, and 24th in slugging this year. Even better for the Pirates, they just got the news that one of their best bats, Bryan Reynolds, could be back soon.
Carlos Santana had his second good game of the series. in game one he drove in two runs, scored twice, hit a home run, and went three for five at the plate. Last night it was another home run, two RBIs, and a two-for-four performance at the plate. Sanatana is now hitting .259 this month, with 17 RBIs, five home runs, and 13 runs scored. He also is limiting his strikeouts in this series. He had struck out six times in five games going into the series but has not done so in the series so far.
It was also a good night for Connor Joe as well. This has been far from the norm for him. He drove in two last night but only has seven RBIs this month. Meanwhile, he is hitting just .212 on the month. The Pirates would love to see him repeat his performance today.
Henry Davis is continuing his hot start to the year. Since making his major league debut on June 19th he has already driven in four runs and hit a home run. He is also hitting .303 with a .378 OBP. Davis has hits in seven of his nine games so far and is on a six-game hitting streak. He has four hits in nine at-bats this series and has also driven in three runs.
Luis Ortiz will be hoping to pick up where Mitch Keller left off yesterday. He will be making his ninth start of the season in this one. So far this year he is 2-3 with a 3.74 ERA. His last two starts have been solid, giving up just one in each of them. Last time out, it was eight innings of work, with five strikeouts and just 97 pitches.
Final Padres-Pirates Prediction & Pick
While Musgrove has been the better pitcher for the season in this matchup, the same was true yesterday with Snell. The biggest difference between the two teams has been their hitting as of late. The Padres are just not hitting well, and seem well on their way to a complete collapse. The Pirates seem to be turning a corner. With how the Pirates are playing and with them getting runs, that is the side to back in this one.
Final Padres-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Pirates +1.5 (-108)