The Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots for Sunday Night Football on NFL Network! It's time to continue our NFL odds series with a Patriots-Broncos prediction and pick.

After taking down the Pittsburgh Steelers on TNF two weeks ago, the Patriots fell to the Kansas City Chiefs 27-17 last week. New England is now (3-11) on the season and are in line to have a top-3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Bailey Zappe has taken over at QB over Mac Jones and you would think the Patriots would just tank the season to potentially earn the No. 1 pick in the draft to take Caleb Williams. The Pats end the year with two division games against the Bills and Jets.

The Denver Broncos are a rollercoaster this season. They sit at (7-7) on the campaign and are coming off a miserable loss to the Detroit Lions 42-17. The start of the season was horrific but Sean Payton has done a great job of putting this team back into contention for the playoffs. The Broncos need this win against the Patriots badly to get back on track to inch closer to the postseason. Denver is currently the 11th seed in the AFC. It's a long shot, but if a few teams ahead of them lose then the Broncos certainly have a chance to make it. However, an upset loss to the Patriots would likely end their season.

Here are the Patriots-Broncos NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NFL Odds: Patriots-Broncos Odds

New England Patriots: +6.5(-102)

Denver Broncos: -6.5 (-120)

Over: 34.5 (-105)

Under: 34.5 (-115)

How to Watch Patriots vs. Broncos Week 16

Time: 8:15 ET/5:15 PT

TV: NFL Network

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why The Patriots Could Cover The Spread

The forecast in Denver shows that there is a chance it could snow on Sunday night, which couldn't be better as a Christmas Eve night game. However, for the players, it could make it tough for them. Playing in the snow is never easy but it could really benefit the Patriots defense in this game. New England has the 2nd ranked rush defense in the NFL allowing just 3.2 yards per carry. Even though they have a hard time winning games, they don't allow themselves to get beat that way. The Broncos have the 14th-ranked rush offense in the NFL but star running back Javontee Williams only has one rush touchdown on the season, and that came against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 14. If NE can continue to shut down the run then they have a chance to keep this game close.

The last time the Pats played on primetime was also in Week 14 when they beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on TNF. They responded by playing a solid first half against the reigning Super Bowl champions. The Pats led 10-7 at one point and almost took that lead into the half. Even though many knew they wouldn't hold on, after the game Patrick Mahomes gave them credit for making it difficult on the Chiefs.

The Pats defense needs to continue to play hard. If they force Russell Wilson to have to air it out all game long then they should like their chances with the expected forecast. On the other side of the ball, the NE offense needs to dominate in the run game. Rhamondre Stevenson is banged up with an ankle injury and he may not play. It will be up to Ezekiel Elliott to lead the charge and help get some points on the board for the Patriots. He has 522 rush yards on the season averaging 3.6 yards per carry.

Why The Broncos Could Cover The Spread

Denver is the favorite to win this game by around a touchdown and that is an accurate line. It should be low-scoring. Wilson and the Broncos' offense have the ability to score points but the Patriots' defense won't make it easy on them. Sean Payton will need to try and execute a run game even though the Patriots defend it well. They can't rely on Wilson airing it out for the entire game. Williams must be a massive part of the game plan. He only had 27 yards on 12 carries in the ugly loss to the Lions. When in the RedZone, Wilson needs to target Courtland Sutton as often as he can because his 10 touchdowns are 3rd in the league.

The Broncos defense has a chance to turn things around. They allowed 42 points to the Lions when nobody saw that coming. A bounceback game is in store for this unit and they certainly can not let Bailey Zappe beat them. Just like NE will, Denver needs to focus on shutting down the run game. Something to keep in mind, the Broncos have a (+5) turnover difference compared to the Patriots at (-8).

Final Patriots-Broncos Prediction & Pick

The best call on the board is the under at 34.5. I don't expect many points to be scored in this game. However, keep an eye on the forecast before doing so.

Final Patriots-Broncos Prediction & Pick: Under 34.5 (-115)