When the Minnesota Vikings made a deal with the Houston Texans for a late first-round pick more than a month before the 2024 NFL Draft, it became clear that Kevin O’Connell’s team wants to trade up for a quarterback. Armed with the Nos. 11 and 23 picks in the first round, Minnesota can easily get into the top 10 now, but to pick the signal-caller the franchise truly wants, they’ll have to call the Washington Commanders and make a trade up to No. 2.
How the Vikings can get to 2,600 points to make a Commanders trade work
Over 30 years ago, when Jimmy Johnson was coaching the Dallas Cowboys, he came up with a draft pick trade value chart to figure out what picks his team could give up to move up and what they could accept to move back.
Today, four decades later, the NFL is still using the basic framework of that chart to make draft pick trades. There are currently variations on the model that teams use, but to get a general idea of what NFL draft pick trades look like, the Johnson model holds up to this day.
In 2024, the No. 2 overall pick is worth 2,600 points, according to Draft Tek.
For the Vikings to go to the Commanders with a trade for No. 2, they’ll have to come with both their first-round picks. However, the No. 11 (1,250) and No. 23 (760) only add up to 2,010, leaving the Vikes nearly 600 points short of their mark.
Minnesota doesn’t have their second or third-round selections this year, so the next they’d be able to trade is a Round 4 pick, which is only worth 78 points. In fact, all of the Vikings’ draft capital in the 2024 NFL Draft adds up to 2,206.8, which is still 400 points short of pick No. 2.
All this means that there is no way to move up to second unless the Vikings throw in next year’s first-rounder, and that is a dangerous proposition. Unless Minnesota wins the Super Bowl, the pick will be worth at least 600 points. However, if it is in the top 16, it will be worth over 1,000 points, which is a good deal for the Commanders.
And after all this math, the truth is, the Vikings have already tipped their hand and aren’t in a strong bargaining position if they really want the second pick so that they can have their choice of QB prospects. Because of that, Washington can demand Minnesota’s 2024 fourth or 2025 third for good measure.
So, the perfect trade the Vikings must offer Commanders for the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is No. 11, No. 23, their 2025 first, and 2025 third.
After that, they just have to decide which QB to pick.
Who would the Vikings take at No. 2?
While going up to No. 2 would cost the Vikings a lot, it is worth it to have their choice of QB prospect after the Chicago Bears take Caleb Williams.
Overall, there are six potential first-round QBs this year with Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix Jr. Williams is in a tier by himself with Maye and Daniels together in Tier 2. Tiers 3 either includes McCarthy, Nix, and Penix; McCarthy and Nix; or McCarthy alone, depending on your preference.
At two, the Vikings would likely choose between Daniels, the Heisman-winning, super-athletic but slight LSU QB, or Maye, who looks like an NFL signal-caller coming off the bus, but who hasn’t quite produced like it yet.
If the Vikings want McCarthy, though, they may be able to trade up to four or five and still get him, but the Michigan QB reportedly won’t get past the New York Giants at No. 6. If McCarthy is Minnesota’s guy, trading up to No. 2 still makes sense.
In the NFL, if you love a college QB and believe in his potential, it doesn’t matter if you draft him “too high.”
Take the Buffalo Bills for example.
In 2018, the team needed a QB, and they traded No. 12 and two second-round picks to move up five spots and pick their guy at No. 7. Maybe they could have got him at 12 or traded one fewer second-rounder to move up to nine or 10 and still picked the same player. But instead, they went to where they went and picked the guy they picked, mock drafts and critics be damned.
Fast forward six years later, and few remember (and absolutely no one cares) that the Bills took Josh Allen maybe a little too high. If a draft day trade works out and you nail it by getting your QB of the future, no trade is wrong.
But if you mess it up, history (and fans) will remember that for a long time.
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