The Minnesota Vikings' move to gain a second first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft is a strong indication that they're looking to move up from the 11th overall pick, and the New England Patriots are a strong trade partner.
The Patriots, who hold the No. 3 overall pick, might hold the last golden ticket in this spring's draft. Many draft evaluators believe there's a clear top three when it comes to the quarterbacks, with many mock drafts having those three quarterbacks going consecutively with the top three picks.
But the Patriots are also in a weird spot as well. Barring something unforeseen, they'll get the last pick of the Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels trio, which will likely come down to Maye and Daniels. If the Washington Commanders take the quarterback that the Patriots prefer out of those two with the second pick, then they should heavily consider trading down from the No. 3 overall pick.
Let's take a look at what exactly the Patriots should seek from the Vikings in a possible trade involving the third overall pick.
What Patriots should ask from Vikings in a possible trade-down scenario
At the bare minimum, the Patriots should seek a similar package the Miami Dolphins got from the San Francisco 49ers for the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. If you need a refresher, the Dolphins got the 49ers' first-round pick in that year's draft (No. 11 overall) plus two future first-round picks and a future third-round pick.
But the Patriots should hold out for more than that.
The Patriots hold the leverage in this spot. They have the last ticket to getting one of the top three quarterbacks in this draft and, unlike the Dolphins in 2021, they desperately need a quarterback themselves. If Maye or Daniels have a real shot at living up to the hype, they'd be trading away a franchise quarterback for at least the next 10 seasons. You need a premium package if you're essentially giving away a quarterback for that package.
On the other end, the Vikings are just as desperate for a quarterback themselves. Kirk Cousins' departure leaves them with Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall as their only quarterbacks. Does that sound like a quarterback room that can help a team compete with the Green Bay Packers or Chicago Beras for second place in the NFC North, let alone compete with the Detroit Lions for the division or other teams in the conference for the NFC title?
The simple answer is no. But the Vikings' need for a quarterback goes beyond forming the best team.
They're currently trying to negotiate a long-term extension with superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson after failing to come to terms on a deal with him last offseason. As Jefferson enters the final season of his contract, why should the 2022 Offensive Player of the Year agree to a deal when he has no clue who's going to be his starting quarterback moving forward? Sure, the Vikings can offer him a lot of money, but so can several other teams with better quarterback situations.
So, the Patriots have to apply a Jefferson tax in any possible deal with the Vikings. Their roster is also arguably the worst in the league, so they can certainly use the extra draft capital.
That's why the Patriots should ask the Vikings for the No. 11 overall pick, the No. 23 overall pick, and their 2025 first-round pick. But they shouldn't stop there as that's still short of the value of what the Dolphins got from the 49ers. They should ask for the Vikings' fourth-round pick (No. 108) in this year's draft as it's their best overall pick remaining after the first round plus their 2025 third-round pick and their 2026 second-round pick as they gave away their 2025 second-round pick in the deal with the Texans.
Why New England should try to make another move if they trade down
The Patriots would still be without a possible franchise quarterback if they trade down with the Vikings. If they still want to get one and they are fans of J.J. McCarthy, they need to find a way to sneak back up in the draft order.
If so, they should try to move up to the Los Angeles Chargers for the No. 5 overall pick if they feel the New York Giants are going to take a quarterback with the No. 6 overall pick.
It might be forgotten, but the Dolphins immediately traded back up from the No. 12 overall pick following the trade they made with the 49ers in 2021, getting the sixth overall pick from the Philadelphia Eagles for the 12th pick, a fourth-round pick and a 2022 first-round pick. The Patriots should offer the 11th pick, their third-round pick, and the 2025 Vikings' first-round pick to move up with the Chargers.
If there's a sense that the Giants will pass on McCarthy, the Patriots should try to move up to the No. 8 overall pick, which is held by the Atlanta Falcons. In this scenario, the Patriots should offer the 11th pick, their fourth-round pick, and a future second-round pick to move up to the eighth spot.
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