Purdue vs. Illinois prediction, odds, pick how to watch Men's College Basketball game - 3/5/2024

The top two teams in the Big Ten face off as Purdue faces Illinois. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Purdue-Illinois prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Purdue enters the game at 26-3, ranked second in the nation. They are also 15-3 in conference play, which leads the Big Ten. Thye comes into the game winners for 14 of 15 games, with also three strength wings. The one loss was against Ohio State on the road, where they fell by four points. Since then, thye have been solid, but not dominant.  They did beat Rutgers by 28, but then it was an eight-point win over Michigan, before the last time out. First time out, they beat Michigan State by just six points at home.

Meanwhile, Illinois is 22-7 on the year while sitting 13-5 in conference play. That places them second in the conference, two games back of Purdue. They have won three straight games since falling by one point to Penn State. Since the loss, Illinois has been great. they won over Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in the three-game winning streak. This is the only time Illinois will face Purdue this year, and the winner will have the tie-breaker heading into the conference tournament.

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Purdue-Illinois Odds

Purdue: +1.5 (-120)

Moneyline: -110

Illinois: -1.5 (-102)

Moneyline: -110

Over: 164.5 (-115)

Under: 164.5 (-105)

How to Watch Purdue vs. Illinois 

Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT

TV: Peacock

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Purdue Will Cover The Spread/Win

Purdue is number three in the nation in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings, sitting second in adjusted offensive efficiency and 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have also faced the sixth hardest schedule according to Ken Pom, coming away with just three losses on the year. Further, Purdue is seventh in the nation in points per game while sitting fourth in assists this year. They are also 14th in the nation in effective field goal percentage this year. Zach Edey has led them.

Edey comes into the game with 24.0 points per game this year. That is good for second in the nation this year, while his shooting percentage of 62.6 percent is 14th. Edey has 22 or more points in each of his last six games. Meanwhile, Braden Smith comes in with 13.1 points per game this year, while also having 7.1 assists per game on the year. Lance Jones has also been solid this year, he comes into the game with 12.6 points per game.

Purdue has been solid in the rebounding game as well, sitting sixth in the nation in rebounds per game. Further, they are ninth in defensive rounds per game as well, while sitting fifth in offensive rebounding percentage. Edey and Smith lead the way there too. Edey is averaging 11.8 rebounds per game this year, third in the nation. He has been dominating the boards. Edey has double-digit rebounds in 13 of the last 14 games. Meanwhile, Braden Smith has 5.9 rebounds per game this year.

On defense, Purdue is 107th in points against per game this year but they are 50th in opponent effective field goal percentage.  Once again, the story on defense is Edey and Smith. Edey comes in with 2.2 blocks per game this year. Meanwhile, Smith has 1.7 steals per game on the season. Further, Lance Jones also has 1.3 steals per game this year.

Why Illinois Will Cover The Spread/Win

Illinois ranks 12th in adjusted efficiency in KenPom rankings, sitting third in adjusted offensive efficiency and 103rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are sixth in points per game this year while sitting 17th in field goals made per game this year. Terrence Shannon Jr. has been solid this year. He leads the team with 22.0 points per game of the year while shooting 47.6 percent from the field. Further, Marcus Domask has been good as well. He has 16.0 points per game this year while adding in 3.4 assists per game, the most on the team. Rounding out the top scorers is Coleman Hawkins. Hawkins comes in with 13.3 points per game this year.

What has been special about this Illinois team is the rebounding this year, they are fourth in the nation in rebounds per game. They are 11th in the nation in defensive rebounds per game while sitting 20th in the nation in offensive rebounds per game this year. Quincy Guerrier shines here. He comes in with 6.7 rebounds per game, helping his 10.2 points per game. Hawkins comes in rebounding well with 5.8 rebounds per game, while Ty Rodgers comes in with 5.1 rebounds per game.

On defense, Illinois is 197th in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting 46th in opponent effective field goal percentage.  Hawkins leads the team with 1.7 steals per game this year while having 1.1 blocks per game this year. Meanwhile, Shannon has just under a steal per game and one block per game this year.

Final Purdue-Illinois Prediction & Pick

This is a battle of the best in the Big Ten. The winner will have a lot of influence over the top spot in the Big Ten Tournament and a number one seed in the NCAA tournament. In a game like this, the best players shine. Terrance Shannon has been great when he is on the court, but he is an offensive threat and does not add a lot past that. Zach Edey is the best player in the country. Not only is he an offensive threat, but he dominates the board and can change the game on defense as well. With that, take Purdue to win in this game.

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Final Purdue-Illinois Prediction & Pick: Purdue +1.5 (-120)