The AFC Divisional Round ends with a battle in the cold as the Buffalo Bills host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday evening. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Ravens-Bills prediction and pick.
Ravens-Bills Last Game – Matchup History
The Ravens hosted the Bills on Sunday Night Football during Week 4. The Ravens demolished the Bills with a 35-10 win as Derrick Henry made his presence known to the Baltimore community with 199 yards and a pair of touchdowns including an 87-yard TD rush. Lamar Jackson also had a 9-yard rush TD.
Josh Allen had one of the worst games of his career but we all know the Bills are a different team right now and he will have a much better performance at home in the playoffs.
Overall Series: Ravens own the all-time series record at 7-4
Here are the Ravens-Bills NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
AFC Divisional Odds: Ravens-Bills Odds
Baltimore Ravens: -1.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -118
Buffalo Bills: +1.5 (-120)
Moneyline: +100
Over: 51.5 (-106)
Under: 51.5 (-114)
How to Watch Ravens vs. Bills
Time: 6:30 ET/3:30 PT
TV: CBS/Paramount+
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Why The Ravens Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Ravens saw a lot of success go their way in the last meeting between these two powerhouses. This will be a different environment on the road in Buffalo which proves to be a hard place to win. The Ravens are going to establish their running game early. That is guaranteed. Henry, Jackson, and even Justice Hill should be given opportunities early to create big gains. Hill was utilized in the first meeting with a 19-yard reception touchdown and did have four carries for 18 yards. Henry will carry the load with 20+ carries and it's expected Lamar will use his legs as well. In the 28-14 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Henry carried the ball 26 times for 186 yards and two TDs.
One of the biggest criticisms Lamar gets during the playoffs is that he is hesitant to use his legs. He is arguably the best running quarterback of all time outside of Michael Vick, yet, he passes up opportunities which has cost his team in the past. This game will have moments that will require Lamar to use his speed to make plays. Lamar is capable of doing this while throwing multiple touchdown passes as he threw 41 during the regular season. Zay Flowers is questionable for this game but is expected to return and play.
The Ravens' defense will be facing a different version of Josh Allen this time around. A guy who could very well steal the MVP from Lamar this season is in front of them. Allen will also use his legs, especially in the RedZone. Containing him with their backs against the wall will be important. James Cook also led the NFL in rushing touchdowns during the regular season with 16. Allen wasn't far behind him with 12 himself.
The Ravens will win this game by controlling the time of possession and strong RedZone defense to give them the edge in what should be a close battle.
Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Bills' offensive game plan will be similar as the two offenses are similar. Both teams are run-heavy, contain great offensive linemen, have a speedy QB, and small and quick receivers. Josh Allen will put the offense on his back time and time again on Sunday. Dion Dawkins is one of the top left tackles in the NFL. He leads a great offensive line unit that really moves guys around. That was a major reason why Cook was able to reach 1,006 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Against the Denver Broncos last week, the offense had some hiccups on the opponent's side of the field which resulted in three field goals from Tyler Bass. Points are points, however, if the Bills are forced to settle for three field goals, that is a win for the Ravens. This game will be close, and the Bills must convert in the RedZone.
The defense has a very tough task for this game. They allowed five touchdowns in the last meeting and the Ravens ran all over them. If the Bills can switch up their game plan then they can win this game and advance to the AFC Championship once again.
Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir will have their chances as well to make plays. Shakir caught six passes on six targets for 61 yards in the win over Denver. Samuel had three catches for 68 yards including the 55-yard TD catch.
Final Ravens-Bills Prediction & Pick
The Bills are very good. Outside of the Detroit Lions, they have the best resume during the regular season. They have wins over the two No. 1 seeds in the NFL, the Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. They have shown up in the biggest games at home. Buffalo has a home-field advantage which is very important as they are 9-0 at home this season. The temperature will be around 11 degrees. The Ravens got the better of the Bills last time out but that was September and it is very hard to beat a team twice. The Bills will get the job done and win but we will take the point(s) here just in case a walk-off field goal wins it for Baltimore.
Final Ravens-Bills Prediction & Pick: Bills +1.5 (-120)