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It is an AL East showdown as the Boston Red Sox face the Tampa Bay Rays. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Red Sox-Rays prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Red Sox enter the game after winning two of three over the Royals. Still, the Red Sox were on a long cold streak going into the series and saw their pitching get shelled in the first game of the series. The lack of consistent pitching has caused them to fall to 71-66 on the season, 14.5 games out of first in the division. They are also 5.5 games out of the last Wild Card Spot.
Meanwhile, the Rays lost two of three over the weekend to the Guardians. The Rays are still all but assured a playoff spot. While they are 2.5 games behind the Orioles in the division, they are 6.5 games ahead of the next two Wild Card teams, and eight games ahead of the first team out right now, the Blue Jays.
Here are the Red Sox-Rays MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Rays Odds
Boston Red Sox: +1.5 (-205)
Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+172)
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
How To Watch Red Sox vs. Rays
TV: NESN/BSSUN
Stream: MLB.TV/ESPN+
Time: 4:10 PM ET/1 :10 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Inconsistent pitching has been the major issue for the Red Sox as of late. On the season, the Red Sox are 21st in team ERA, while sitting 20th in WHI{P and 25th in opponent batting average. It will be Brayan Bello going on the mound to start for the Red Sox. He is 10-8 on the year with a 3.57 ERA. He had a solid month in August. Bello pitched 35 innings over six starts and has a 3.34 ERA. In three of the six starts, he gave up just one run. He went 3-2, and the Red Sox went 4-2 went he started last month.
The offense finally showed some pop in the last two games of the series, scoring 16 runs. On the year the Red Sox sat seventh in the majors in runs scored while sitting third in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage, and sixth in slugging. Adam Duvall has shown some pop as of late. He has three home runs in the last week while also hitting a double and driving in four runs. He is hitting .300 in the last week with a .391 on-base percentage and has also scored four times in the last six games.
As a team, the Red Sox have an expected runs created of 26.4 runs in the last week and have scored 29 times. They have also been hitting and slugging fairly well. They are hitting .238 but with 20 extra-base hits in their 50 total hits.
Meanwhile, Triston Cases may have the hottest bat on the team. In the last week, he has hit .429 with a .538 on-base percentage. He has three doubles and a home run also leading to four RBIs in the last six games. Casas has also scored four times in the last week as well. Masatka Yoshida has also scored four times and driven in four runs in the last week. He is doing it while hitting .375 with a .474 on-base percentage. Like Casas, he has a home run, but just two doubles for Yoshida in the last week.
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
The Rays have one of the best offensive units in the majors. They are fourth in the majors in runs scored while sitting fifth in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging. Randy Arozarena has been hitting well in the last week. He has driven in six runs in the last five games with a home run and a double. He is hitting .263 in the last week with a .417 on-base percentage. Arozarena has also stolen two bases in the last week.
Meanwhile, Rene Pinto has made an impact in limited at-bats. He has just one at-bat in the last week, but he has hit .625 in the thos at-bats with two doubles and a home run. That has led to him driving in three runs. The hottest bat in the lineup may belong to Josh Lowe. In the last week, he is hitting .375 with a .412 on-base percentage. He has a home run and two RBIs in that time and has scored three runs.
As a team, the Rays are hitting well as of late. They are hitting .265 as a team in the last five games with seven home runs and six doubles. The Rays are also walking, with a .332 on-base percentage and when they get on base there is danger. They have stolen seven bases in the last week as well. Their expedited runs scored is sitting at just 24.6 in the last week, but they have scored 28 runs, which shows they are making the most of scoring situations.
The Rays are sending Aaron Civale to the mound today. On the year he is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA. He has been solid as a member of the Rays. The Rays are 4-1 when has started games, while he has gone 2-1. As a member of the Rays, he has a 3.55 ERA. Except for one start where he went six innings without giving up a run, he gave up between two and three runs in every start.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick
In the pitching match-up today, Aaron Civale is going to give the Rays a slight edge. While Bellow has been solid, Civale has been more consistent overall. Meanwhile, the Rays have been more consistent at the plate. They are getting on base more, and scoring more in the last week. The Rays are also hitting better with runners in scoring position. This is a big series for the Red Sox and their chances to get back in the playoff race. It is going to require consistency on the mound and at the plate. That is something they have just not shown recently. Take the Rays to cover in this one in a higher scoring game.
Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick: Rays -1.5 (+172)
