The San Antonio Spurs are officially rebuilding. After hanging around as one of the final playoff contenders in the Western Conference over the past few seasons, the Spurs blew things up this offseason, and figure to be among the worst teams in the league this season. Still, there's basketball to be played here, so we decided to outline our Spurs bold predictions for the 2022-23 season.
The Spurs managed to stay afloat last season, thanks largely to Dejounte Murray's breakout season. Murray ended up getting traded to the Atlanta Hawks this offseason for a big haul of draft picks, and just like that, the rebuild was underway. San Antonio has some exciting young players, but this isn't a roster that is going to be competing for a playoff spot like they had been in season's past.
San Antonio's main goal this season involves seeing what their young players are capable of. Finding the building blocks for their next great team is the key, and while that won't lead to wins this season, it could lead to wins in the future. So with that all in mind, let's jump into our bold predictions and see what could be expected from the Spurs this season.
3. Spurs C Jakob Poeltl will average a double-double in points and rebounds
In the first five seasons of his career, Jakob Poeltl couldn't ever really cement a starting spot for himself. He was traded off the Toronto Raptors after just two seasons as part of the Kawhi Leonard trade, and while he became a solid rotation piece for San Antonio, it always felt like his game left something to be desired.
Poeltl finally began to show what he's capable of in a starting role last season. He started 67 of the 68 games he played in last season, and was one of the Spurs best players on the season. His statline isn't otherworldly (13.5 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.8 APG, 61.8 FG%) but Poeltl largely did what he had to do on both sides of the ball for the Spurs, and showcased his value in the process.
Poeltl is a lock to be San Antonio's starting center, and he will have an even bigger role in their game plan now that Murray is gone. Poeltl nearly averaged a double-double in points and rebounds last season, so with more playing time likely coming his way, it's not a stretch to expect Poeltl to average at least 15 points and 10 rebounds per game for the Spurs. After a strong 2021-22 season, expect Poeltl to take another step forward this year.
2. Spurs SF Keldon Johnson will average 20+ points per game
With Murray gone, Keldon Johnson is now the face of the Spurs. Johnson stepped up to be Murray's partner-in-crime last season, and if it weren't for Murray's own improvements, Johnson would be getting more attention himself. Johnson is going to be tasked with being the Spurs top offensive option this season, and it will be interesting to see how he fares in that role.
Johnson saw his role increase last season, and he made the most of it. His scoring per game shot up from 12.8 points per game to 17 points per game, and while his rebounding and assist numbers stayed at the same spot for the most part, it was tough to ignore Johnson's improvements.
Johnson came close to being a 20 point per game scorer last season despite taking just 13.5 shots per game. It's safe to say that Johnson will have to take more shots this season if San Antonio wants to stay competitive. If Johnson can maintain his strong shooting splits from last season (46.6 percent from the field, 39.8 percent from behind the arc) he should surpass the 20 point per game threshold.
1. The Spurs will finish with the worst record in the NBA
The easiest way to speed up a rebuild is to lose. The NBA isn't like the NFL where the team with the worst record automatically gets the top overall pick in the upcoming draft, but finishing with the worst record in the league gives you the best odds at landing the top pick in the NBA's draft lottery. Considering Victor Wenbanyama is going to be available for the taking in the 2023 NBA Draft, there will be no shortage of tanking teams this season.
The Spurs will have some competition for this honor, but looking at their roster, it's tough to see them being very competitive this season. Johnson and Poeltl headline the starting lineup, and Devin Vassell is a solid player, but Tre Jones is unproven, and Jeremy Sochan is a rookie. They have veteran bench pieces in guys like Josh Richardson and Doug McDermott to help out, but it won't really make a difference.
It's important to remember that this is what the Spurs wanted since they are rebuilding, and while they won't blatantly attempt to lose games, they aren't going to be in a rush to win them either. San Antonio's young core will show some promise, but they will end up finishing with the worst record in the NBA, giving them the best odds at getting a straight shot at Wenbanyama.
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