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Two conference runner-ups face off as SMU faces Penn State in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. It is time to continue our college football odds series with an SMU-Penn State prediction and pick.
SMU-Penn State Last Game – Matchup History
SMU enters the game at 11-2 on the year. They lost their third game of the season, 18-15 to BYU. They would survive a later scare from Duke, as they won after Duke missed the two-point conversion in overtime, and would finish the regular season on a nine-game winning streak. This would result in a birth in the ACC title game. In that game, they faced Clemson. They would be down 31-14, but tie the game in the fourth quarter. Still, Clemson hit a game-winning field goal as time expired. SMU would still receive a CFP birth over Alabama, even with the loss. Meanwhile, Penn State was 11-2 on the year. They started 6-0 before a seven-point loss to Ohio State. After finishing the regular season 11-1, they made it to the Big Ten title game, where they fell to Oregon 45-37.
Overall Series: This will be the third time these two teams have faced off. The first meeting was a 13-13 tie in the 1948 Cotton Bowl. They would meet again in 1978, with Penn State winning 26-21.
Here are the SMU-Penn State College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: SMU-Penn State Odds
SMU: +8.5 (-108)
Moneyline: +250
Penn State: -8.5 (-112)
Moneyline: -315
Over: 53.5 (-114)
Under: 54.5 (-106)
How to Watch SMU vs. Penn State
Time: 12:00 PM ET/ 9:00 AM PT
TV: TNT/Max
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why SMU Could Cover The Spread/Win
After being benched, Preston Stone has entered the transfer portal, leaving Kevin Jennings to lead the way for this SMU squad. He has completed 227 of 344 passes this year, good for 3,050 yards. Jennings also has 22 touchdown passes to just eight interceptions while being sacked 11 times this year. He has also run for 379 yards and five touchdowns.
Roderick Daniels Jr. has led the receiving game. He has 38 receptions for 599 yards and three scores. Meanwhile, he has run in three touchdowns. Further, Key'Shawn Smith has 31 receptions for 512 yards and five scores. Finally, Jordan Hudson has 35 receptions for 382 yards and five scores. In the running game, Brassard Smith has been wonderful. He has 217 carries for 1,270 yards and 4 touchdowns. Further, LJ Johnson has 68 carries for 277 yards and five touchdowns.
SMU is 28th in the nation in opponent points per game while sitting 30th in opponent yards per game. They are seventh against the rush but 94th against the pass. Kobe Wilson leads the way. He leads the team with 110 tackles while having three sacks, two pass breakups, two intercepts, a forced fumble, and a touchdown this year.
Why Penn State Could Cover The Spread/Win
Drew Allar has led the way for the Penn State offense this year. He has completed 224 of 324 passes this year for 2,894 yards. He has 21 touchdown passes this year while throwing seven interceptions. Allar has been sacked just 11 times this year as well. Allar has run pretty well with 279 rushing yards and six scores.
Tyler Warren, who received Heisman votes, has led the way in the receiving game. Warren has 88 receptions this year for 1,062 yards. He has also scored six touchdowns this year. Harrison Wallace III has also been solid this year. He has 39 receptions for 638 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Still, major production on this team comes from the backfield. Kaytron Allen has run 173 times for 822 yards and six touchdowns. He has also brought in 119 yards receiving and two scores. Nicholas Singleton has run for 838 yards and seven touchdowns. He also has brought in 37 receptions for 335 yards and four touchdowns.
The Penn State defense has been great this year. They are seventh in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting fifth in opponent yards per game. They are tenth against the rush while sitting 12th against the pass this year. Abdul Carter has led the way. He is fourth on the team in tackles this year while having ten sacks, three pass breakups, and two forced fumbles this year.
Final SMU-Penn State Prediction & Pick
SMU is 8-5 against the spread this year, and has covered both times they were underdogs this year. Penn State is just 6-7 against the spread this year. They are 6-4 as a favorite this year. This game will come down to two key factors. First, is SMU protecting Kevin Jennings. SMU is 23rd in the nation in sack percentage, but Penn State is 23rd in the nation in defensive sack percentage. Second is SMU stopping the Penn State run game. Penn State is 16th in the nation in running yards per game, but SMU is seventh against the run. This will keep the game close, so take SMU with the points.
Final SMU-Penn State Prediction & Pick: SMU +8.5 (-108)
