Stefanos Tsitsipas takes on Carlos Alcaraz at the French Open. Our French Open odds series has our Tsitsipas Alcaraz prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Tsitsipas Alcaraz.
The 2024 French Open moves into the quarterfinals, and it is time to separate the pretenders from the contenders.
Daniil Medvedev lost on Monday in Paris. The No. 5 seed bowed out of the tournament. No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev barely won in five sets over Holger Rune. He's still alive, but is not playing well enough to capture this championship in France. This is a huge opportunity for Stefanos Tsitsipas to win his first major title. His quarterfinal opponent, Carlos Alcaraz, has had to wear a protective sleeve on his arm as a response to discomfort and pain. Alcaraz has been able to handle his first four matches of the tournament, but he has not looked dominant the way he can be when everything is clicking. Tsitsipas has not done well at all in the head-to-head matchup against Alcaraz, but if there is a time to play the Spaniard, it is now. Tsitsipas's best surface is clay. He made the final of Roland Garros in 2021 and led Novak Djokovic by two sets before losing in five. If he wants to take that next step, here is his shot at Alcaraz in Paris.
Why has Tsitsipas not broken through at major tournaments? He doesn't add shots to his game. Tsitsipas has a world-class first serve and forehand, but he has not added layers to his game. If he is not having a great serving day, it is hard for him to beat elite or similarly-talented opponents. He doesn't have a Plan B. He doesn't have a top return game. He doesn't have several different ways to win. He usually has one way of winning — it's very reliable versus inferior players, but up against opponents of Alcaraz's caliber, his limitations are exposed. We will see if Tsitsipas can win with his serve and forehand, or if Alcaraz — even in his diminished form and physical condition — can expose all his limitations.
Here are the Stefanos Tsitsipas-Carlos Alcaraz French Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
French Open Odds: Stefanos Tsitsipas-Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Game spread
Tsitsipas +5.5: -106
Alcaraz -5.5: -126
Money line
Tsitsipas: +330
Alcaraz: -430
To win first set
Tsitsipas: +196
Alcaraz: -245
Total Games In Match
Over 36.5: -112
Under 36.5: -118
Tsitsipas over 16.5 games: -118
Tsitsipas under 16.5 games: -112
Alcaraz over 20.5 games: -110
Alcaraz under 20.5 games: -122
How To Watch Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Carlos Alcaraz
TV: Tennis Channel
Stream: Tennis Channel Plus
Time: Approx. 2:30 p.m. ET/11:30 a.m. PT
*Watch Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Carlos Alcaraz LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Stefanos Tsitsipas Could Cover The Spread
The spread of 5.5 games for this match means if Tsitsipas loses in straight sets, he has to lose each set by a very small margin. To be more precise, if Tsitsipas is to cover the spread yet also lose in straight sets, he would have to force a tiebreaker in at least one set (7-6) and lose the other two sets by no more than two games. If Tsitsipas loses 7-6, 7-5, 6-4, he will cover. If he loses 7-6, 6-4, 6-4, he will cover. Is that scoreline realistic? Yes. Is it likely? No. Therefore, if Tsitsipas covers the spread, the much more likely outcome is that the match will go four or five sets, with Tsitsipas winning at least one set. If you think Tsitsipas will win one set, you should definitely bet on Tsitsipas against the spread.
Why Carlos Alcaraz Could Cover The Spread
If Alcaraz can win in straight sets by at least two games per set, he'll cover. It's that simple. If Alcaraz wins 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, he covers. In other words, if Alcaraz wins three sets and doesn't go to a tiebreaker in any of those three sets, he covers. That would not be a shocking result, but it also means Alcaraz has very little margin for error.
Final Stefanos Tsitsipas-Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Pick
Here's the tricky part of tennis betting: Do you think Player A will beat Player B, or merely keep it close? Stefanos Tsitsipas is hungry for a major championship. Playing a close match is not the goal; he's here to win. Losing would be a crushing outcome for him. However, that's a totally different calculus compared to the betting situation. Tsitsipas might not win the match, but he probably will win at least one set. Therefore, Stef plus +5.5 is a good bet. A better one: Stef over 16.5 games.
Final Stefanos Tsitsipas-Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Pick: Tsitsipas over 16.5 games
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