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Expectations for the Texas Longhorns' football program in 2023 are as high as the heat in the Lonestar state, where, at the very least, it has most talking Big 12 Championship aspirations. That includes head coach Steve Sarkisian.
“I really feel like our team is on a mission,” Sarkisian said via the Always College Football podcast with Greg McElroy. “We’ve been building for this, to win a Big 12 Championship. I felt like we missed an opportunity a year ago to not play for the Big 12 Championship Game because of our own undoing. We made some mistakes in a couple of games that cost us an opportunity to be in that game, and these guys have been on a mission all winter, all spring.”
This will be the Longhorns final season to compete for the Big 12 title, as they'll move onto the SEC next season. If the Texas football team can accomplish such a feat, it will be their first Big 12 title since 2009, and their first appearance back in the game since 2018.
So, with expectations looming large, if Texas can't win the Big 12, will they be nothing more than an abject failure in 2023? Some believe so.
“It's a failure if they don't win the Big 12. They're the best team on paper. They should win the league. If you don't do that, you didn't reach your potential,” On3's Andy Staples said.
This statement carries a lot of merit to it, because Staples is right — a lot is going in Texas' favor in 2023. Here's why Texas football will avoid failure and will have a great chance of winning the Big 12 in 2023.
3. Talent in recruiting, returning production
Since Sarkisian arrived from Alabama in 2021, he's brought an emphasis on recruiting, attempting to build Texas football back into the powerhouse it should be. Over the past three cycles, Texas has consistently secured top-tier recruiting classes, ranking 3rd in 2023, 5th in 2022, and 15th in 2021. This strong recruiting is what has given Texas a ninth-ranked SP+ rankings according to ESPN.
For those unfamiliar with the metric, it measures returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.
With that being said, the Longhorns are the highest ranked team in the Big 12 in returning production. With 15 returning starters for the 2023 season, including 10 on the offensive side, the Longhorns football team boasts an experienced roster that is well-equipped to make a run at the Big 12 title. The continuity and familiarity among the offense, specifically, will be invaluable, providing stability and cohesion on that side of the ball. While the losses of standout running backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson may be felt, Texas retains talent and depth at almost every other offensive position. Besides that, the key will be maximizing the productivity and maintaining the health of star wide receiver Xavier Worthy and starting quarterback Quinn Ewers.
As far as the other side of the ball goes, even with the 65th overall ranked defense in the nation last season, the Longhorns still held the third best in the Big 12, according to USA Today. It's a good thing the Longhorns still reside in the Big 12 this season, instead of the SEC, where defense will most assuredly matter more. A high powered offense and mediocre defense can win a Big 12 championship this season.
2. Big 12 schedule
The Longhorns are favored at +115 to win the Big 12, with a win total projection of 9.5, according to FanDuel. Even with a strength of schedule that ranks second in the Big 12, the Longhorns will more than likely be favored in 11 out of their 12 games. Getting through road trips to Baylor, TCU, Houston, and Iowa State will undoubtedly pose challenges, as will facing Texas Tech and last year's surprising Big 12 champions Kansas State at home. Luckily, defeating Alabama won't matter in regards to a conference championship this season, however, so even if Texas takes a loss in Tuscaloosa, it won't affect their Big 12 title aspirations.
1. Better than Oklahoma
A significant factor working in favor of the Longhorns in 2023 is the perceived decline of their arch-rival, Oklahoma. After the abrupt leaving of Lincoln Riley and their star quarterback Caleb Williams to USC, Oklahoma was left to turn to former assistant and Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables last season. It wasn't a productive year one under Venables, as the Sooners finished 6-7 and 3-6 in the conference.
This further presents a golden opportunity for Texas to establish its dominance in the Big 12. The Sooners have been a constant thorn in the side of the Longhorns, winning the Big 12 title eight times since 2010. Now, with a stronger overall roster, the Longhorns are better positioned than they have been in years relative to Oklahoma. With the Sooners still looking to regroup this season, it offers Texas a chance to close the talent gap and prove their superiority one last time in the conference. Texas is hoping last year's 49-0 drubbing of the Sooners was just the beginning.
All eyes on Texas
When the 2023 college football season begins, a lot eyes will be on the Longhorns. The time has come for the Texas football program to reclaim its position atop the Big 12 and lay the groundwork for future success in the SEC. With their talent, coaching staff, and favorable schedule, the Longhorns are poised to bring the Big 12 championship back to Austin. One last time.
