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The 2024 NFL season is right around the corner, which means that fantasy football is close to getting started too. In some cases, folks are probably already drafting, which means it's extremely important to know what your draft board looks like. A key to building a good team is identifying potential breakout candidates, and there are a plethora of guys who fall in that category at the running back position.
Running back is a tough spot to nail down in the world of fantasy football, as there are only a few guys who are really considered every-down running backs in this age of the NFL. Add in the constant turnover at the position, whether it be due to poor play or injuries, and it's safe to say that it is one of the more confusing spots to draft at for fantasy owners.
For more insight, listen to our 2024 fantasy football primer:
The good news is that there are a handful of players at the position that appear primed for breakout campaigns in 2024. So with that being said, let's pick out five of the top breakout candidates at the running back position for fantasy football owners in the upcoming season, and see why each of these guys could end up taking a huge step forward in 2024.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers backfield is one of the more confusing units in the league heading into 2024. Najee Harris is technically the lead running back, and while he had a strong 2023 campaign (255 CAR, 1035 YDS, 8 TD, 29 REC, 170 YDS), he still was out produced by Jaylen Warren in the world of fantasy football (149 CAR, 784 YDS, 4 TD, 61 REC, 370 YDS), despite the fact he only played more than 50 percent of the Steelers offensive snaps in just five of their games.
Chances are Warren is going to have a bigger role for Pittsburgh in 2024, especially considering they traded away one of their top options in the passing game in Diontae Johnson. Warren was far more productive on a per carry basis (5.3 YPC compared to just 4.1 from Harris), and he is a much bigger threat in the air, as he became a consistent producer in PPR leagues despite playing second-fiddle to Harris.
The split will be closer to 50/50 between these two guys in 2024, with Warren being the more reliable fantasy option than Harris given his contributions in the air. Warren was already more productive than Harris last season (they scored 196.4 and 195.5 standard PPR fantasy points last year, respectively), and while he's currently dealing with a hamstring injury, he should easily be a top-15 running back in PPR leagues after he finished 22nd last year while being used far too infrequently due to Harris. Expect that to change in a big way this season.
Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
The Indianapolis Colts found themselves in a strange position in 2023, as they suddenly had two star running backs when Jonathan Taylor finally agreed to a three-year, $42 million contract extension, ending his holdout from the team. That's because Zack Moss balled out in his absence, and turned himself into one of the best fantasy options during Taylor's absence.
Moss put up some big numbers for Indy (183 CAR, 794 YDS, 5 TD, 27 REC, 192 YDS, 2 TD), but he did most of his damage in his first five games of the season when he was filling in for Taylor (96 CAR, 466 YDS, 4 TD, 14 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD). Even when working as Taylor's backup, Moss still managed to maintain some fantasy value, as owners held onto him in the event Taylor went down with an injury.
Now with the Cincinnati Bengals, Moss should be their top dog, and his fantasy prospects are looking even brighter after Chris Evans unfortunately suffered a torn patellar tendon that will likely hold him out for the entire season. In a high octane Bengals offense, Moss should enjoy a plethora of volume with Evans out, and if he can stay healthy, he could end up being a top-10 running back in the league.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
Zamir White may be a bit unknown in the fantasy football world for the time being, but that's about to change in a big way. White is set to be the Las Vegas Raiders starting running back after Josh Jacobs signed with the Green Bay Packers this past offseason, and based on what he managed to do in the final four games of the season, it's safe to say that White could be one of the gems of the draft for fantasy owners.
On the surface, White's numbers don't look all that impressive (104 CAR, 451 YDS, 1 TD, 15 REC, 98 YDS), but pretty much all of that production came over the final four games of the season when he was filling in for Jacobs (84 CAR, 397 YDS, 1 TD, 9 REC, 60 YDS). In some instances, White helped fantasy owners win a championship after they scooped him up on the waiver wire late in the season.
Now, White is the clear cut lead running back, and he doesn't really have much competition for touches out of the backfield. In some ways, he's still being undervalued given he's not a well-known name, and the Raiders offense could struggle in 2024. But White produced some huge numbers in similar circumstances last season, and if he falls in your draft, you absolutely need to snatch him up.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
In a lot of ways, James Cook broke out in 2023 for the Buffalo Bills. With Devin Singletary no longer in town, Cook was the clear cut top running back in Buffalo. He parlayed that into a huge season (237 CAR, 1122 YDS, 2 TD, 44 REC, 445 YDS, 4 TD) that saw him finish as the 12th best running back in standard PPR scoring leagues.
And yet, it feels like Cook is only scratching the surface of his potential. With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer leading the aerial attack, Buffalo is going to rely very heavily on Cook on the ground, which should only allow him to improve upon his strong 2023 campaign. With no real threat for touches out of the backfield alongside him, that should mean bundles of fantasy football points on a weekly basis.
Having Josh Allen at quarterback does diminish Cook's fantasy value ever so slightly, as he does steal a lot of Cook's goal-line touches and touchdown scoring opportunities. Still, after scoring just four total rushing touchdowns over his first two seasons, Cook should surpass that total in 2024, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him be a fringe top-five running back when all is said and done this year.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Bijan Robinson is in a bit of a similar spot as Cook, but his ceiling is far higher in fantasy football for a couple of reasons. Not only is the Atlanta Falcons offense looking lethal thanks to the addition of Kirk Cousins under center, but Robinson was more productive than Cook in fantasy last season (214 CAR, 976 YDS, 4 TD, 58 REC, 487 YDS, 4 TD) despite playing in one of the worst offenses in the league.
The Falcons are expected to be much better in 2024, and that should allow Robinson to take a big leap forward in his sophomore campaign. Not only will he have more room to work with on the ground, but he also has a consistent quarterback in Cousins throwing him passes. Robinson could very well end up being the most productive fantasy football running back if everything goes his way.
There are some concerns, such as the looming presence of Tyler Allgeier, but realistically speaking, Robinson is so good that he should be getting at least 20 touches per game, regardless of Allgeier's performance. Robinson appears to be one of the most bankable breakout candidates across the league, regardless of position, and he is well worth using your first-round pick on this year if he's available when you are on the clock.
