As the 2023 NFL season approaches, fantasy football enthusiasts are eagerly analyzing the potential of players to dominate the field and lead their teams to victory. One player who has garnered significant attention is polarizing QB Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins. With his impressive performance in recent seasons and the growth potential, Tagovailoa presents an intriguing fantasy football outlook. In this article, we will delve into Tagovailoa's statistics, comparisons, and projections. We'll try to provide a comprehensive analysis of his fantasy football prospects for the upcoming season.

Tagovailoa's Performance and Statistics

When evaluating a player's fantasy football outlook, it is crucial to consider their past performance and statistics. In the case of Tua Tagovailoa, he has shown promising signs of growth and development. In the 2022 season, Tagovailoa ranked fifth in Pro Football Focus passing grade and third in average depth of target (aDOT). These numbers highlight his ability to make accurate throws downfield. Of course, that's a valuable asset in fantasy football. Additionally, Tagovailoa recorded a league-high 8.9 yards per attempt. This indicates his efficiency in gaining significant yardage. In fact, he accumulated career-highs in total passing yards (3,548) and passing touchdowns (25). These metrics demonstrate Tagovailoa's potential to accumulate fantasy points through both yardage and touchdowns.

According to a recent analysis, Tagovailoa also ranked fifth in yards per game and 11th in points per game in the 2022 season. These rankings indicate his ability to consistently contribute to fantasy teams. Furthermore, Tagovailoa ranked second in EPA+CPOE, a metric that measures a quarterback's efficiency and effectiveness. This high ranking suggests that Tagovailoa has the potential to make smart decisions on the field, resulting in successful plays and fantasy production.

How He Compares

When compared to other quarterbacks in the league, Tua Tagovailoa's fantasy football outlook is generally positive. However, it falls behind the elite quarterbacks who tend to run more. We're talking about guys like Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes. In terms of statistics, Tagovailoa led all quarterbacks in passer rating, yards per attempt, and touchdown percentage in the 2022 season.

However, his current ADP is 9.08. This places him as the 8th pick of the 9th round and the 104th selection overall. This ADP indicates that Tagovailoa is often selected as a mid-round quarterback option in fantasy drafts. In terms of rankings, Tagovailoa ranked fifth in yards per game and 11th in points per game in the 2022 season. While Tagovailoa's fantasy football outlook may not be as high as the elite quarterbacks, his strong statistics and favorable rankings suggest that he still has the potential to be a valuable asset for fantasy teams.

Average Draft Position and Value

Another crucial factor to consider when evaluating a player's fantasy football outlook is their average draft position (ADP) and overall value. As we said, Tagovailoa's current ADP is 9.08. Consequently, fantasy managers have the opportunity to acquire Tagovailoa at a reasonable value. This means he can potentially provide a significant return on investment if he exceeds expectations.

According to the latest fantasy football draft rankings on ESPN, Tua Tagovailoa is ranked 12th among quarterbacks for the 2023 season. Aside from the aforementioned elite guys, this ranking places him behind quarterbacks such as Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, and Aaron Rodgers. Additionally, according to FanDuel research, Tagovailoa is being selected at an ADP of 89.8 in half-PPR drafts. Again, this puts him significantly behind the top tier of elite quarterbacks who tend to run more.

However, some experts have made bold predictions for Tagovailoa's performance in the upcoming season. For example, some have predicted that Tagovailoa will surpass 5,000 passing yards. Now that would be a remarkable achievement. Furthermore, some fans believe that Tagovailoa is a top-five fantasy quarterback for the rest of the season, behind only Allen, Hurts, Mahomes, and even Lamar Jackson. Sure, Tagovailoa may not be ranked as highly as some of the elite quarterbacks in the league. When it comes to Tua, there's just so much variance in the possible outcomes. He has the talent and skill to be elite. It does come down to his health and consistency, though.

Team Outlook

The Miami Dolphins campaign in the 2023-24 NFL season is uncertain. While the team has shown promise in recent seasons, they have struggled to consistently perform at a high level. The Dolphins' success in the upcoming season will depend on several factors, including the performance of Tua Tagovailoa. If Tagovailoa can continue to improve and build on his strong statistics from the 2022 season, he can lead this team to title contention. As such, he can potentially be a valuable asset for fantasy teams.

However, if he struggles or is benched for performance reasons, his fantasy football outlook could be negatively impacted. We find that a very remote possibility, though. Ultimately, the success of the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa's fantasy football outlook are closely intertwined. As such, fantasy managers should closely monitor the team's performance as the season unfolds.

2023 Fantasy Outlook

In 2022, there were moments when Tagovailoa displayed exceptional skill, positioning him as one of the best quarterbacks in Fantasy. Conversely, there were also instances where doubts arose, making it seem as if he should reconsider playing football altogether. While healthy, Tagovailoa managed some impressive performances. To wit, he achieved a minimum of 29 Fantasy points in four games, with a remarkable 50-point display during Week 2 against Baltimore. Unfortunately, his playing time was curtailed due to multiple concussions. This has led to many Fantasy managers perceiving him as an injury risk for the current season.

Despite concerns, the Dolphins have faith in Tagovailoa. He has also received clearance to play. As such, he remains a viable option to draft as a low-end starter across all leagues. Notably, his receiving corps offers significant potential for success. After all, it features talents like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Under the guidance of offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, Tagovailoa thrived during their initial year together, highlighting his potential to excel.

Considering the injury risk, it is advisable to select a second quarterback in one-quarterback leagues as insurance against potential setbacks. Nevertheless, Tagovailoa possesses considerable upside and ranks among the top 10 quarterbacks this coming season. In one-quarterback leagues, drafting Tagovailoa in the mid-rounds represents a wise choice. Meanwhile, in Superflex and two-quarterback leagues, he is likely to be selected no later than Round 4.

Looking Ahead

In conclusion, Tua Tagovailoa's fantasy football outlook for the 2023 NFL season appears promising. With his impressive performance in recent seasons, strong statistics, and favorable rankings, Tagovailoa has the potential to be a valuable fantasy football asset. Additionally, his current ADP presents an opportunity for fantasy managers to acquire him at a reasonable value.

Keep in mind that while bold predictions should be approached with caution, they add an element of excitement to Tagovailoa's prospects. As the season unfolds, fantasy managers should closely monitor his performance and health. With the right strategy and a bit of luck, Tagovailoa could be a game-changer for fantasy football teams in the 2023 season.