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UFC 265 is set to be a big night of fights. We have a solid Welterweight matchup between Michael Chiesa and Vicente Luque. It's a classic striker versus wrestler scenario so it should be an electric bout. It's time to continue our UFC odds series with a Michael Chiesa-Vicente Luque prediction and pick.
Michael Chiesa is currently on a four-fight win streak and hopes to earn his fifth straight victory on Saturday night. He's achieved big wins over Neil Magny, Rafael Dos Anjos, Diego Sanchez, and Carlos Condit during that stretch. Chiesa's confidence is through the roof right now as he hopes to continue climbing the Welterweight rankings.
Vicente Luque is currently on a three-fight win streak after securing an impressive submission victory over Tyron Woodley in 2021. A win at UFC 265 should move Luque into the top four, soon putting him in contention for the belt. We'll see how it plays out though, as he faces off against a dangerous opponent.
Here's how the sportsbooks have set the odd for this Welterweight matchup.
UFC 265 odds: Michael Chiesa-Vicente Luque odds
Michael Chiesa (-110)
Vicente Luque (-110)
Over 2.5 rounds (-146)
Under 2.5 rounds (+116)
How Michael Chiesa wins the fight
“Maverick” tends to rely on the ground game as he's one of the best natural wrestlers in the UFC. He's proven to be the real deal on the mat, as 11 of his 18 wins have come via submission. This is Chiesa's toughest matchup to date in the UFC, so we'll likely see him be ultra prepared for his bout against Vicente Luque.
His game plan will essentially be the same anytime he enters the octagon. Michael Chiesa is a fantastic wrestler with elite submission skills. However, his opponent is no chump on the ground, so Chiesa might have to take a different approach. Look for “Maverick” to take this fight to the ground and control the top with powerful ground and pound. That should loosen up Luque's guard for Chiesa to finesse a submission attempt for the win.
How Vicente Luque wins the fight
“The Silent Assassin” is a perfect nickname for Vicente Luque, as he's been surprising his opponents throughout his career. He's a known striker that likes to keep it on the feet, but he's also very capable on the ground. Of his 20 professional wins, 11 have come by KO/TKO while seven have come via submission. Luque has a sneaky good ground game that often goes unnoticed due to his striking prowess. For that reason, he's the sixth-ranked fighter in the UFC's Welterweight division.
He likely knows his opponent will look for the takedowns, so look for Luque to attempt to stuff those throughout the fight. Although the “Silent Assassin” is comfortable on the mat, he has a noticeable advantage by keeping the fight standing. If Vicente Luque can avoid being taken down, he should be able to pick Chiesa apart with steady jabs and powerful strikes.
Michael Chiesa-Vicente Luque prediction & pick
The odds say this is a coin-toss, as these guys are evenly matched. This bout will come down to who can follow their game plan more effectively. If Chiesa can get the takedowns, he should be able to control the fight, however, if Luque can keep it standing, he'll be able to gain the advantage. This matchup has the potential to earn the Fight of the Night award, as these two are going to go to war in UFC 265.
FINAL MICHAEL CHIESA-VICENTE LUQUE PICK: Michael Chiesa wins via Split Decision
