The UFC 286 Prelims continue with yet another exciting fight taking place in the Lightweight (155 lb) Division. The UK’s Chris Duncan will take on surging Venezuelan Omar Morales in a dead-even matchup! Check out our UFC odds series for our Duncan-Morales prediction and pick.

Chris Duncan is 9-1 as a professional fighter and will be making his UFC debut after making a second appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series. His first time on the show in 2021 saw him get knocked out by a left hook. In his return to the show, Duncan was able to redeem himself with a TKO win and secure the contract. He’ll look to improve once again in his official debut. Duncan stands 5’10” with a 71.5-inch reach.

Omar Morales is 11-3 in his career and has gone 3-3 since joining the UFC. After earning a contract on DWCS in 2019, Morales went on to win 3 of his first four fights with the promotion, but is on a two-fight losing streak with losses to Jonathan Pearce and Uros Medic. The talented Venezuelan will look to bounce back and get back in the winning column against Duncan. Morales stands 5’11” with a 74-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

UFC 286 Odds: Chris Duncan-Omar Morales Odds

Chris Duncan: -110

Omar Morales: -110

Over (1.5) rounds: -146

Under (1.5) rounds: +114

How to Watch Chris Duncan vs. Omar Morales

TV: ESPN+, ESPN Network

Stream: ESPN+

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Time: 3:00 p.m. ET/ 12:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)

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Why Chris Duncan Will Win

Chris Duncan made a name for himself in Bellator by going a perfect 3-0. Since his first DWCS loss, Duncan made some major improvements to his game and came back seeking revenge. He throws with very heavy hands and has an aggressive stance that imposes opponents. He’s also very solid in his wrestling and can work chain takedowns while stuffing his opponents’. Look for Chris Duncan to find his most success when he’s pressuring Morales and getting him to back up. Duncan is most dangerous when his opponents is even slightly compromised, so look for him to become aggressive once he sees an opening.

For Duncan to win, he’ll have to outpace Morales and be the more active fighter. Both of these men will wait patiently until the perfect time to strike, so look for Duncan to open up on the counter shots once he see Morales over-commit. If Duncan can catch his opponents on the back foot and get swinging while they’re backing up, he can have a chance to put Morales down.

Why Omar Morales Will Win

Omar Morales has shown glimpses of his striking potential but is still looking to mix everything together in the octagon. He has decent striking and is very long for this weight class. He opens up with a ton of kicks and will sit back and wait for counter-striking opportunities. He often uses his striking to set up the offensive wrestling where he’s shined in the past. Against an energetic opponent like Duncan, he may have trouble finding the takedown if both fighters are still fresh. But as this fight wears on, look for Morales to test the will of Duncan and begin chasing the takedown in later rounds.

Morales has five submission wins under his belt, with the other four coming by decision and two by knockout. He shines most on the ground, attacking the back and chasing submissions from top position. Duncan will look to keep the fight standing, so Morales should look to dictate the pace of the fight and mix in the wrestling to tire Duncan. If he can conserve his energy, he should be able to outlast his debuting opponent.

Final Chris Duncan-Omar Morales Prediction & Pick

The odds makers have this fight set at a coin flip, which speaks to the level of experience Chris Duncan is making his debut with. Both fighters will be looking to impose their game plans, Duncan with the striking and Morales with the wrestling. I predict Morales will do enough on the feet to keep it competitive with Duncan. In the end, Morales has more ways to finish the fight and will be very cautious of the hands coming back from his opponent. In this dead-even matchup, let’s go with the more experienced fight in Morales here.

Final Chris Duncan-Omar Morales Prediction & Pick: Omar Morales (-110)