It's finally time for our Main Event as we bring you a prediction and pick for the headlining bout of UFC Brazil from Sao Paulo. The action takes place in the Heavyweight Division between ranked monsters as Brazil's No. 9 Jailton Almeida will take on the UFC's knockout king No. 10 Derrick Lewis. You won't want to blink during this one! Check out our UFC odds series for our Almeida-Lewis prediction and pick.
Jailton Almeida (19-2) has gone a perfect 5-0 in the UFC since being discovered on Dana White's Contender Series. No one has been able to figure out his unique blend of size and athleticism as he now has three wins by submission and two by ground-and-pound. Most recently, he submitted Jairzinho Rozenstruik in the first round of their fight. Now, he looks to put away the UFC's best knockout artist. Almeida stands 6'3″ with a 79-inch reach.
Derrick Lewis (27-11) has gone 18-9 en route to becoming the UFC's leader in career knockout wins. After a tough three-fight losing streak, Derrick Lewis earned a massive win with a flying knee and ground strikes over Marcos Rogerio de Lima in his last fight. It marked the 22nd knockout-win of his career and he'll now look for another in this Main Event spot. Lewis stands 6'3″ with a 79-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Brazil Odds: Jailton Almeida-Derrick Lewis Odds
Jailton Almeida: -485
Derrick Lewis: +370
Over 1.5 rounds: +250
Under 1.5 rounds: -345
How to Watch Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET/ 6:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Jailton Almeida Will Win
Jailton Almeida is rapidly rising up the ranks of heavyweight and poses a unique problem to fighters in this division that may neglect their training on the ground. While Almeida weighs in around 230 pounds, he has tremendous strength and can out-muscle many of the heavier fighters in the division. His most lethal skill is his suffocating grappling and his ability to drown bigger opponents on the ground. He has otherworldly squeeze in his submissions and will pose a serious threat if he can take Lewis' back at any point of the fight.
Derrick Lewis won't be any easy opponent to bring down, so Almeida should be ready to stand and trade while keeping his hands up. We haven't seen much from Almeida as far as the stand-up is concerned, so it'll be interesting to see how he reacts to the power coming back from Derrick Lewis during the striking exchanges. Still, given the betting odds, Vegas is expecting Almeida to go out there and grab a quick submission win over Derrick Lewis.
Why Derrick Lewis Will Win
Derrick Lewis is coming in to yet another fight as a sizable underdog and it's been a similar story over the last five fights he's fought. Coming into his last fight, Lewis looked very good on the scales and visibly looked to be in better shape while in the octagon. We didn't get to see a ton of his cardio given his quick finish, but it was clear that Lewis had come into that fight with a laser-focused mentality and a dialed-in weight cut. He's probably the most confident person on the planet when it comes to his knockout power, so never count The Black Beast out no matter the betting odds.
In the past, we've seen Derrick Lewis be able to stand up from the ground when on bottom during grappling exchanges. Against a lighter opponent like Almeida, this could be the case early on in the fight while Lewis is still fresh. He's made it clear in the past that he hates fighting five-round fights, so expect Lewis to try and get the job done quickly in this one. With the total rounds set to go under two, look for Derrick Lewis to chase the finish in this one.
Final Jailton Almeida-Derrick Lewis Prediction & Pick
We've seen exactly what Derrick Lewis can do when a sure-grappler like Curtis Blaydes attempts a takedown at the wrong time, so it'll be interesting to see how quickly Almeida shoots for the first takedown of this fight and how Lewis reacts. The first few minutes will be crucial as both fighters bite on each other's feints, but fully expect Almeida to make the first move in this one.
With the over/under set so low, this fight is clearly going to end in either a Derrick Lewis KO or a Jailton Almeida submission. For our prediction, we'll have to go with the Brazilian in Jailton Almeida to get the win. Derrick Lewis had a great performance his last time out, but this is just a bad matchup skill-wise for him. Unless he can land another sweet-spot punch, expect Almeida to get the submission in this one.
Final Jailton Almeida-Derrick Lewis Prediction & Pick: Jailton Almeida (-485); Wins by Submission (-120)
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