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We're back with yet another prediction and pick for UFC Brazil: Almeida vs. Lewis as we turn our attention towards the Co-Main Event taking place in the Welterweight (170 lbs) Division. Rising Brazilian newcomer Gabriel Bonfim will take on Denmark's own Nicolas Dalby as the two fight in the biggest spots of their careers. Check out our UFC odds series for our Bonfim-Dalby prediction and pick.
Gabriel Bonfim (15-0) has gone 2-0 in his UFC bouts since earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series. He now has respectable wins over Mounir Lazzez and Trevin Giles as he was able to finish both fights with a guillotine choke. Dalby will undoubtedly be his toughest test yet, but Bonfim is focused and poised for this big moment in front of his home country. He stands 6'1″ with a 72.5-inch reach.
Nicolas Dalby (22-4-1) has gone 6-3-1-1 since joining the UFC in 2015. While he was up and down to start his UFC run, he's now notched three consecutive wins coming into this fight and managed to grab decision wins in all of them. With his recent success, Dalby could be on the cusp of a ranking if he's able to take down Bonfim as the massive betting underdog. He stands 5'10” with a 74.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Brazil Odds: Gabriel Bonfim-Nicolas Dalby Odds
Gabriel Bonfim: -650
Nicolas Dalby: +470
Over 1.5 rounds: +100
Under 1.5 rounds: -130
How to Watch Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET/ 6:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Gabriel Bonfim Will Win
Gabriel Bonfim is coming into this fight after two very impressive guillotine wins over Mounir Lazzez and Trevin Giles. He was able to find both of those guillotine attempts from the feet and he poses a tremendous danger when opponents put their head on the wrong side of his body. We've seen Nicolas Dalby desperately shoot for a takedown and leave his neck exposed before, so don't be surprised if we see Bonfim finish this fight the exact same way as he has in the past. On the feet, Bonfim is a very competent striker but he may run into some problems with the toughness and pressure of Dalby.
If Bonfim wants to win this fight, he should look to stay measured and calm on the feet while waiting for Dalby to eventually make a mistake. If he's able to coax Dalby into a hasty decision, he'll eventually catch him slipping as he locks in a submission. Dalby is very tough and hard to put away on the feet, so Bonfim should ultimately avoid trying to stand and strike with him as he runs the risk of getting caught. At this betting price, it's easy to see how Bonfim gets this fight to the ground and finishes with a submission.
Why Nicolas Dalby Will Win
Nicolas Dalby will be listed as the heavy underdog in this matchup, but he's been in similar spots in the past and usually thrives when everyone is counting him out. He's very tough and can take a punch without wavering in his relentless attack. He's a high-volume boxer and does his best work when he's putting together combinations to the head and body. Dalby also has very solid cardio and can push a high pace for all three rounds of a fight. His last three fights have been decision wins in which Dalby outlasted his opponents in heated striking battles. He may have to see the distance once again if he wants a chance at this win against Bonfim.
Nicolas Dalby can win this fight if he makes it ugly for Gabriel Bonfim and throw some unorthodox looks at him. In the grappling, Dalby will likely be outmatched and doesn't want to tie up with Bonfim. For most success, Dalby should look to get Bonfim backing up against the cage. Dalby is very good at pressuring fighters and if he can get Bonfim against the cage, it opens up the opportunity to land shots to the head and body. If Dalby can keep a similar pace and land meaningful damage, he should come out victorious if this fight ends up seeing the distance.
Final Gabriel Bonfim-Nicolas Dalby Prediction & Pick
When looking at the betting odds, it's clear that Gabriel Bonfim will be the much more skilled fighter here and has a better chance to finish inside of the distance. However, Dalby is a smart veteran and if he has it his way, we could see a back-and-forth striking war that lasts all three rounds. If he's smart, Bonfim will look for the grappling as he tries to lock up a submission win. For the prediction, let's go with Gabriel to join his brother Ismael as victors at UFC Brazil.
Final Gabriel Bonfim-Nicolas Dalby Prediction & Pick: Gabriel Bonfim (-650); Wins by Submission (+110)
