We're back with another prediction and pick for UFC Paris as the Main Card action continues from Accor Arena. We turn our attention towards the Lightweight (115 lb) Division as we see fearsome finishers square off. France's own Benoit Saint Denis will take on Brazil's Thiago Moises in an exciting bout. Check out our UFC odds series for our Saint Denis-Moises prediction and pick.

Benoit Saint Denis (11-1) has gone 3-1 to start his UFC campaign and is currently looking for his fourth consecutive win. He faced his toughest test to date in Ismael Bonfim last fight, to which Saint Denis responded by notching a submission finish as a massive betting underdog. He's riding a ton of momentum and will be hyped to fight in front of his home fans. Saint Denis stands 5'11” with a 73-inch reach.

Thiago Moises (17-6) comes into this contest at 6-4 in the UFC since 2018. He's gone 4-2 in his last six fights with impressive wins over Alex Hernandez and Bobby Green. Moises has faced the much better competition thus far and hopes to bring Saint Denis back down to earth as the underdog. Moises stands 5'9″ with a 70.5-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

UFC Paris Odds: Benoit Saint Denis-Thiago Moises Odds

Benoit Saint Denis: -170

Thiago Moises: +138

Over 2.5 rounds: -102

Under 2.5 rounds: -126

How to Watch Benoit Saint Denis vs. Thiago Moises

TV: ESPN+

Stream: ESPN App, UFC Fight Pass

Time: 3:00 p.m. ET/ 12:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)

*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Benoit Saint Denis Will Win

Benoit Saint Denis is riding high after his last three consecutive victories. He notched finishes over two weaker opponents in Niklas Stolze and Gabriel Miranda, but had his most impressive performance as an underdog against Ismael Bonfim. Bonfim had a ton of hype coming into the fight and Saint Denis was able to finish with a first round submission. Now, he faces his most experienced opponent to date and a finish may not come as easily.

Saint Denis has a lot of power in his hands and could benefit from standing and striking with Thiago Moises. While Saint Denis may have had success grappling in previous fights, he'll have to be extremely careful grappling against a jiu-jitsu specialist like Moises. Saint Denis should look to keep this fight standing and wear down his opponent with a steady jab all night. If he can find his straight shots, it'll open up the opportunity for him to land heavy hooks along the fence and possibly finish this fight.

Why Thiago Moises Will Win

Thiago Moises is coming into this fight fresh off a nice submission win over Melquizael Costa in his last fight. It marked the second consecutive win for him via rear naked choke as he's putting his world class jiu-jitsu on full display. He's going to be extremely dangerous on the ground for Saint Denis to deal with. With the confidence he has on the ground, we could see Moises welcome the grappling as he knows Saint Denis isn't nearly as polished as he is. Look for Moises to back Saint Denis off with big shots on the feet as he creates an angle for the takedown.

Thiago Moises will have to work hard to land a takedown against Saint Denis' 85% defense, but he'll stand to gain a lot of control on the ground if he can land in top position. He's the shorter fighter and will have a slight reach disadvantage, so it wouldn't benefit him to stand and trade while testing his luck against Saint Denis. Look for Moises to be very strong in the 50/50 grappling exchanges and surprise a lot of people on the ground.

Final Benoit Saint Denis–Thiago Moises Prediction & Pick

This is going to be an extremely fun fight as both guys are riding their own hot streaks. Benoit Saint Denis shocked a lot of people with his last performance as an underdog and it may be reflecting in the betting lines here. Recency may be playing a factor as Saint Denis is slated to fight his toughest opponent to date in Moises.

Moises was able to contend on the ground with Islam Makhachev for four rounds, so the thought is that he'll completely dominate here against Saint Denis. While it may be dangerous during the first round, look for Moises to eventually shoot for the takedown and turn this into a grappling match. Let's take his plus money with the prediction and take a look at his submission finishing prop.

Final Benoit Saint Denis-Thiago Moises Prediction & Pick: Thiago Moises (+138); Wins by Submission (+500)