Lincoln Riley's first season as USC football's head coach marked a serious turnaround for the program. In one year with Riley calling the shots and his transfer talent executing the game plan, the Trojans went from 4-8 to 11-3, falling just short of the program's first College Football Playoff appearance. Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy, and several Trojans turned pro, including Minnesota Vikings' first-round pick Jordan Addison.

The expectations for Lincoln Riley in year two are very high, as the way last season ended felt like a major disappointment following the 11-1 start. USC football reloaded again through the transfer portal, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Here are three bold predictions for the Trojans' 2023 season.

 

1. Caleb Williams wins the Heisman Trophy again

Is it really that bold to suggest that the betting favorite to win the Heisman actually does so? Well, sort of. Only Archie Griffin has ever won the Heisman twice, back in the 1970s. Bryce Young, Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, Johnny Manziel, Tim Tebow, Matt Leinert, the list goes on. Nobody in almost 50 years has managed to win back-to-back.

Why will Caleb Williams be the first to do it since Archie Griffin? For one, he's a generational talent. Not that all of those listed above weren't all immensely talented, but Williams makes magic happen on the football field the way very few have before.

Two, Lincoln Riley's offense is so creative and efficient, Williams is bound to put up huge numbers again. USC moved the ball in surgical fashion last year, just like Riley's teams at Oklahoma did, with two Sooner Heisman Trophies to show for it. All signs point to more of the same this year. Plus, Williams is surrounded by elite playmakers on the outside and in the backfield once again.

The other reason is the Heisman field is wide open this year. The nation's three top programs — Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State — still don't know who their quarterback is. USC's own conference, the Pac-12, does have a lot of quarterback talent. But the thing is, guys like Oregon's Bo Nix and Utah's Cameron Rising are multi-year veteran quarterbacks. If they were capable of putting together Heisman production, they would have done it by now. A 13th-year ascension for Nix just doesn't seem likely. (Kidding, but it feels like Nix has been in college forever.)

LSU's Jayden Daniels is second in preseason Heisman odds and Texas' Quinn Ewers is second. Many expect those to both be very good teams, but they have to prove it first. Drake Maye projects to be the second quarterback off the board in next year's NFL draft, but North Carolina just won't be good enough to garner serious Heisman consideration for Maye. That's the thing, there has to be a combination of team success with the elite production and wow-factor. Few QBs are in a position to check all three boxes. Caleb Williams is one of them.

 

2. USC's defense is… not any better

Look, USC's defense was flat-out terrible last year. They couldn't have tackled high school players the way the played in the Pac-12 Championship Game and then the Cotton Bowl. Tulane, a Group of Five team, ran for 305 yards against USC. They scored 46 points while completing eight passes, and it's not exactly like Tulane's roster was made up of a bunch of former 5-stars.

So, USC set out in the offseason to address the defense — particularly the run defense — by bolstering the front seven. Two impact 4-star freshmen are joining the squad in 2023 and could see meaningful reps right away: LB Tackett Curtis and EDGE Braylan Shelby. In the transfer portal, the Trojans brought in — among others — LB Mason Cobb from Oklahoma State, DL Kyon Barrs from Arizona, DL Anthony Lucas from Texas A&M, DL Jamil Muhammad from Georgia State, and most importantly, DL Bear Alexander from the Georgia Bulldogs.

The addition of this much sheer size and talent should theoretically improve USC's defense immediately, especially in the run game. But there's one thing USC football didn't change: the defensive coordinator. Alex Grinch came over from Oklahoma with Lincoln Riley, and the product on the field is exactly the same as it was at OU. Unstoppable offense, Swiss cheese defense.

It's not for a lack of talent at USC, and it wasn't for a lack of talent at Oklahoma either (or at Ohio State before that). The problem is schematic, and the scheme is something Riley and Grinch have refused to adjust year after year. Until that changes, don't expect USC's defensive results to change. The defense will again be the limiting factor for this team.

 

3. USC doesn't win the Pac-12

USC is the favorite to win the Pac-12, with Washington and Oregon trailing close behind. The other major players are Utah, who many expect to take a step backwards after winning the conference in each of the last two years, and Oregon State, who made the most overlooked quarterback move of the offseason by adding D.J. Uiagalelei through the transfer portal. The Beavers' only weakness a year ago was quarterback, and Uiagalelei was once a top quarterback prospect. If he can turn his college career around, Oregon State will be tough to beat.

The Trojans' schedule is quite a bit harder than it was last year. USC didn't have to play Oregon or Washington in the regular season, and with the annual non-conference matchup with Notre Dame, the Trojans have a nine-week stretch of Power 5 opponents, the longest of any team in the country. Getting through Oregon, Washington, Notre Dame, Utah and UCLA is a brutal task, and staying healthy is going to be a real challenge. Plus, those teams all have great quarterbacks and that's not even including a team like Arizona, with Jayden de Laura dealing out of the backfield.

That's all just to make it to the Pac-12 Championship Game, which USC will still probably achieve, given the talent on the roster. The Pac-12 also did away with divisions last year, so it's just the two teams with the best conference records that match up in December. Then USC would have to play one of these teams that they already played, likely Oregon or Washington.

Prediction: Washington beats USC football in the Pac-12 Championship game; neither makes the College Football Playoff.