There are many factors driving the Golden State Warriors' midseason renaissance.
The return of Draymond Green from an indefinite suspension is probably the biggest one. Jonathan Kuminga's meteoric rise definitely might be next. Andrew Wiggins' rejuvenation can't be discounted. Steve Kerr's decision to commit to a small-ball starting lineup featuring all three of them up front has been an unmitigated success. Don't forget that Stephen Curry is suddenly back to playing like a top-tier MVP candidate.
But it's fair to say the Dubs' major defensive turnaround looms largest, an especially frightening reality for the rest of the league considering their most disruptive perimeter defender is set to be back in the lineup. Gary Payton II is nowhere to be found on Golden State's injury report for Saturday's battle with the Phoenix Suns at Chase Center, clearing the way for him to return after missing the last five weeks of play due to a hamstring injury.
Payton last played against the Orlando Magic on January 2nd, forced to leave the game early after stumbling while hounding Cole Anthony in the backcourt. Two days later, Golden State announced that Payton was set to miss multiple weeks with a strained hamstring, an especially frustrating development because he'd only just earned a clean bill of health a few days earlier after missing the previous month of action with a calf injury.
How will surging Warriors re-integrate Gary Payton II?
Payton's return comes at the perfect time for Golden State. His presence is arguably more useful against the Suns than any other team in basketball. While Wiggins, Kuminga and certainly Green are capable of making Phoenix's big three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal work for their offense, Payton's blend of athleticism, length and anticipation make him not just the Dubs' top on-ball defender, but one of the very best ‘stoppers' in the NBA.
Expect to see Payton match up with Booker for stretches of Saturday's game, trailing the Suns' de facto point guard across the floor with his typical brand of outwardly aggressive defense. He's equally well-suited to checking Beal, and has enough lateral quickness to keep Durant in front of him and get into the former Warrior's body on pull-up jumpers and post-ups.
The bigger question is how Kerr will reintegrate Payton to the surging Warriors' rotation beyond Saturday night. His game is a perfect fit for the more uptempo, frenetic two-way attack they've deployed since their season resumed over the last nine games, a stretch that's coincided with Green getting most all of his playing time at center.
Golden State's opponent turnover rate rises by a whopping 4.5% with Payton on the floor, the biggest difference among players league-wide, per Cleaning the Glass. The Warriors get more transition opportunities when he's in the game, too, no surprise considering Payton's penchant for steals, blocks and deflections defensively.
There's definitely a regular rotation role for Payton with the Dubs. But who will lose minutes now that he's back? Odds are that Payton that forces recently promoted two-way player Gui Santos back to the bench.
Santos' energy, physicality and processing speed has impressed since he entered the rotation over the last five games, and concerns about Golden State swapping his minutes at forward for someone 6'3 aren't unwarranted. Payton has always played much bigger than his size, though, consistently ranking among the league's best non-big rebounders. He can capably guard four positions against most teams and is also an adept screener and finisher in the halfcourt, frequently forming a two-man connection with Curry only surpassed by Green's.
At his best, Payton is bound to prove a pivotal piece of Golden State's new puzzle. The time it takes him to get back to that personal peak, if any, could go a long way toward deciding how Kerr manages his rotation as the Dubs get back to full health.
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