Western Michigan football finished 5-7 last year, barely missing a bowl game. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a Western Michigan football win total prediction and pick.

Last year, Western Michigan failed to win six games for the time since 2013. That was the first year under PJ Fleck who took over a program with nothing to work with in the cupboard. Fleck turned things around though. He won five games each of the next two seasons and in 2016 won 13 games with the only loss being in the Cotton Bowl. Then Tim Lester took over. He went to three bowl games and was 6-6 or better in each of his first five seasons. Then last year, it was just five wins and Lester was fired.

Lance Taylor comes in and hopes to turn around the program as PJ Fleck did. Also like Fleck, he enters with little talent to work with. Western Michigan ranks 121st out of 133 teams in returning production. They are 129th in returning production on defense, and the offensive production returning was not very well last year. Sean Tyler, the running back last year, was their most productive player, but he left the program. Now the Broncos will rely on Keshawn King, a transfer, and a group of inexperienced backs. At quarterback, it is a three-way competition between two guys who performed poorly last year, and Hayden Wolff, transferring in from Old Dominion.

The defense brings back very little. A solid defensive line that helped slow down running games is mostly gone. As is a large chunk of the linebacking core. The defense has some speed, but there will be questions if they can get pressure on opposing quarterbacks this year.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Western Michigan Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 4.5 wins: +148

Under 4.5 wins: -184

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Why Western Michigan Can Win 4.5 Games 

Western Michigan will get to 1-0 right out of the gate. Saint Francis opens the season and while they were solid last year, the two best players from the team have transferred out. This should get the Broncos a nice early win before they visit Syracuse. Syracuse has Garrett Shrader and LeQuint Allen running the offense. While the offensive line for Syracuse will not be great, they have more than enough talent to beat Western Michigan. The next week will not be an offensive explosion, but Western Michigan will not be able to score enough points against a solid Iowa defense. Western Michigan then visits the best team in the MAC in Toledo, who has Dequan Finn. Finn will easily beat Western Michigan's poor defense giving another loss. After starting 1-3, the Broncos will need to get some quick wins to get them to five.

It starts with Ball State. The Broncos, while losing a lot on run defense, should still be one of the better units in the MAC. Ball State will rely heavily on the ground game this year. This will be a close game but will be a win. There is a loss the next week to Mississippi State, but the Broncos get back in the win column against Miami (OH). The Broncos are on an eight-game win streak over Miami (OH). In a game that will be focused on field position, the Broncos have the better special teams to get them the win. The schedule gets tough one more time though, with a visit to the other top team in the MAC. Ohio is next, and Kurtis Rourke is going to be too much for the Broncos to get a win.

With four games left in the season, the Broncos need just two wins to get to five. All four games should be close as well. First are the two other Michigan MAC schools. Eastern Michigan will be the tougher of the two opponents, with a much better offense. It is also the road game of the two. Central Michigan does not have a lot on offense, and Western Michigan should have the better defensive unit this year. The Broncos get one win in these two, before beating Northern Illinois to hit the over.

Why Western Michigan Can Not Win 4.5 Games

First, it cannot start with a slip-up to Saint Francis. Western Michigan will be favored, but Saint Francis was a nine-win team last year. They won the NEC and took Akron to overtime. They have the talent to keep this game close, and in a close game, anything can happen. With visits to three power five squads and the two top teams in the conference, five losses are already on the table. Even with a win over Saint Francis, the Broncos would need to go 4-2 in the other six games to hit the over.

Western Michigan could easily lose to both Michigan MAC teams. At Central Michigan, Bert Emanuel Jr is coming into his own. He was limited as a passer last year, but spring practice showed a willingness to let him throw it more. If he can make a few plays with his arm, and just as many with his legs, Central Michigan could be in for a surprisingly good year. Eastern Michigan is built a lot like Western but has more talent. Especially with Samson Evans in the backfield. While the Broncos have a better special teams unit, it may not matter if they cannot stop the Eastern Michigan offense.

Miami (OH) is another potential loss. Brett Gabbert should be back this year, although Aveon Smith showed he was more than capable at quarterback as well. With a defense that may not be able to get pressure on the quarterback, this is a game that one of those two could have a wonderful showing. Ball State and Northern Illinois will come down to the run defense. While Samson Evans is the best back in the MAC, the two best running back rooms belong to Ball State and Northern Illinois. If Western Michigan struggles to stop the run, they will lose both of those games as well.

Final Western Michigan Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

Western Michigan has a very tough schedule and not a lot of talent on the roster. There are questions at just about every spot on offense. The defense lost most of its best players as well. While they open with a win with Saint Francis, they will lose to Toledo, Ohio, and all three power five schools. Combined with losses to Bowling Green at the end of the year, and the two Michigan MAC schools, they will already have eight losses. There are just not enough winnable games this year for Western Michigan. They finish 4-8 and the under hits.

Final Western Michigan Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 4.5 (-184)