In Week 17, the Miami Dolphins had a chance to secure the number-one seed in the AFC. Instead, the team traveled north and put up a dud against the Baltimore Ravens, losing 56-19 — the third-most points allowed in a game in franchise history.
Lamar Jackson looked much more like an MVP candidate than Tua Tagovailoa, with the former throwing for 321 yards and five touchdowns. Tua managed 237 yards and a pair of TDs while Baltimore picked him off twice. If the Dolphins lose to the Buffalo Bills this coming Sunday night, Miami will suddenly be a Wild Card team and looking at a much tougher path to the Super Bowl while playing on the road.
The Dolphins now have five losses on the season. Four of them are against 10+ win teams projected to be in the playoffs. The combined record of the teams they have beaten is 52-92 (36.1% win percentage). The win against the Dallas Cowboys appeared to be a stop toward overcoming those struggles against top teams, but it came against a Dallas team that has similar struggles against quality opponents — especially on the road. Miami's loss against the Baltimore Ravens that the Dolphins are not ready to take that next step toward Super Bowl contention.
Tua is not the same in big games
This Miami Dolphins offense has been borderline unstoppable at times this year. They lead the league with 30.1 points per game, 409.2 total yards per game, and Tua Tagovailoa is the NFL leader with 4,451 passing yards. Yet this offense has not been the same against high-level opponents, with Tua struggling to get going.
In five games against playoff teams this year, Tua Tagovailoa has six TDs and four picks while averaging 244 passing yards per game. Against non-playoff teams, he has 293 passing yards per game with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 11 contests.
The Dolphins are scoring just 18.4 points per game against playoff-bound teams versus 35.5 PPG against all other opponents. While this playmaking Miami defense has shown the ability to set up and take some of the pressure off the offense when Tua has not been firing on all cylinders, Miami will not be able to win many playoff games while scoring less than 20 points.
History of underperformance against top teams
These struggles and inconsistencies are nothing new. Last year, the Dolphins lost five straight games late in the season, with three of them coming against playoff teams. Miami backed into the playoffs with an 11-6 win over a lowly New York Jets team and failed to win in the Wild Card Round against the Buffalo Bills.
While Mike McDaniel is an offensive wizard and one of the best young minds in football, his teams have yet to show an ability to win in important games. Almost every up-and-coming coach and team endures this struggle to come out on top under pressure, and this learning curve can often take seasons to tackle.
Too many turnovers on offense
In 2022, the Dolphins had 21 giveaways on the season. 19 of those giveaways came in Miami's eight defeats. This year Miami has been more turnover-prone, with 23 giveaways so far. They have been able to overcome turnovers to win games, with a trio of wins coming in games where they turned the ball over three times.
But far too often, this offense is boom or bust, either putting up explosive plays or committing turnovers. Against Baltimore, Miami had three turnovers, with two of them leading to touchdowns. Against top teams, every possession is crucial, and these are the fine margins that separate great teams from winning teams.
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